Game 7
As Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put so eloquently: "One game for everything you ever dreamed of. If you win it, you get everything. If you lose it, you get nothing."
Game 7 in the NBA Finals.
What a treat!
Sunday's game – nine years after Cavaliers-Warriors in 2016 – will end the second-longest drought of Finals Game 7s in NBA history.
The league went 11 years between Finals Game 7s from 1994-2005.
Game 7
What should you expect Sunday? A tight game.
In every way.
All eight Finals Game 7s since the NBA-ABA merger have been decided by single digits.
In the last four (2016 Cavaliers-Warriors, 2013 Heat-Spurs, 2010 Lakers-Celtics, 2005 Spurs-Pistons), the teams scored 21, 14, 18 and 19 points fewer than their average in Games 1-6.
Game 7
Do the Pacers have momentum?
Teams down 3-2 that won Game 6 of NBA Finals (last 20 years):
2025 Pacers
2016 Cavaliers*
2013 Heat*
2010 Lakers*
*Won Game 7
It's worth noting the 2013 Heat had both Games 6 and 7 in Miami and the 2010 Lakers had both Games 6 and 7 in Los Angeles under the old 2-3-2 format. The Pacers will of course play Game 7 in Oklahoma City after winning Game 6 in Indiana.
But it is a little weird we've seen teams split Games 6 and 7 of the Finals only once since 1984 – Pistons and Spurs in 2005.
Indiana Pacers
The Pelicans and Pacers entered the season with identical championship odds (1.6%).
New Orleans was done by January.
Indiana will play for a championship Sunday.
Of the 758 teams on record* with preseason implied title odds below 2.8%, the Pacers are the first to come within a game of a championship.
*Since 1984-85, via Sports Odds History
Even after tearing through the East, Indiana was given little chance against the mighty Thunder. The Pacers' implied title odds entering the Finals? Just 16%.
Of the 18 teams on record* that entered the Finals with implied odds below 29%, only the 2004 Pistons – who also had 16% implied odds – came within a game of a championship. Detroit of course won the title.
*All Finals since 1984, most since 1969, via Sports Odds History
Whatever happens Sunday, salute to the Pacers for a hell of a season. Repeatedly counted out, they made this a run to remember and Finals to remember through crazy comebacks, clutch heroics and just sheer determination. This is a special team that has left quite the impression.
Oklahoma City
Aaron Gordon made the first game-winning dunk at the buzzer in playoff history. Tyrese Haliburton made the first game-winner in the final second of an NBA Finals game since Michael Jordan!
That's what it takes to beat the Thunder in Oklahoma City.
The Thunder are 10-2 at home in the playoffs. Even counting those losses, they've outscored opponents by 21 points per game in Oklahoma City in the playoffs. That's the best playoff average home margin by a Finals team in NBA history.
Now, the Thunder will host Game 7.
For the Pacers to go into that environment and win would be truly incredible.
Thunder-Nuggets/Pacers
Spooky framing from Daman Rangoola:
"OKC vs DEN / OKC vs IND
Game 1: Miraculous loss by game winner / Miraculous loss by game winner
Game 2: Easy win / Easy win
Game 3: Loss by 9 / Loss by 9
Game 4: Gutsy win by 5 / Gutsy win by 4
Game 5: Solid home win, series looks done / Solid home win, series looks done
Game 6: Surprising road loss (favored by 5.5) / Surprising road loss (favored by 5.5)"
The Thunder beat the Nuggets by 32 in Game 7. The largest win ever in Game 7 of the Finals was 19 points (Celtics over St. Louis Hawks in 1960).
Phoenix Suns
The Suns told the Timberwolves before the trade deadline Kevin Durant would accept going to Minnesota, but the Timberwolves then found out the Suns weren't actually talking to Durant and didn't know how he felt, Sam Amick of The Athletic said on "Run It Back."
Durant has reportedly said this summer he doesn't want to go to Minnesota. Maybe circumstances changed, but it sure sounds like the Suns were trying to pull a fast one.
I'm open to the possibility the Suns would characterize the pre-deadline situation differently, but their handling of, well, everything, reduces benefit of the doubt.
Regardless, the fallout from February could still affect this summer. Completing a trade usually requires trust between the teams – especially when a potential principal – Julius Randle, in this case – has a player option.
Draft
One of the best indicators of draft stock? Green-room invites. The NBA does not want prospects to sit there into the second round, and the league has access to survey executives on which prospects will likely go higher.
The early green-room invites don't really matter. Of course someone like VJ Edgecombe is getting invited. Though we don't know his exact draft slot, it's sure to be early in the first round.
But the last players invited can be revealing.
The last two batches of invites, according to Jonathan Givony of ESPN.
French forward Noa Essengue
South Carolina forward Collin Murray-Boyles
Washington State wing Cedric Coward
Georgetown center Thomas Sorber
Connecticut forward Liam McNeeley
Colorado State wing Nique Clifford
Illinois wing Will Riley
Michigan big Danny Wolf
French center Joan Beringer
French guard Nolan Traore
Florida guard Walter Clayton
The most notable players not invited:
Michigan State guard Jase Richardson
French wing Noah Penda
Spanish wing Hugo Gonzalez
San Antonio Spurs
I have Dylan Harper penciled in No. 2 in a tier of his own on my draft board. That means I would take him if San Antonio. Drafting is hard enough without considering fit. Take the best prospect and go from there.
But Harper's jumper – with a low release and flat arc – concerns me. And he'd be joining De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle as ball-handling guards with iffy jumpers. The fit is bad.
Excellent article from Kevin O'Connor of Yahoo Sports thoroughly examining the complications of the Spurs drafting Harper No. 2.
Sam Presti
Pablo Torre of "Pablo Torre Finds Out" uncovered Sam Presti's Jazz-Rap album, "Milk Money."
It's clear Presti, who deeply values his privacy, did not want this episode published. Fortunately, Torre doesn't value Presti's privacy nearly as much.
Hopefully, Presti takes this in the good fun it was intended. He published the album, after all!
-Dan Feldman