Luxury tax

14 teams are over the luxury-tax line.

All 14 could reduce their luxury-tax liabilities by the trade deadline – or at least try.

Between underperforming teams no longer wanting to justify their high payrolls, cheap owners averse to the tax, teams with expendable pieces and teams close enough to escaping the tax entirely, the next two weeks could be a salary-dump frenzy.

Focus on Jimmy Butler and other win-now players, there has not been enough attention paid to just how many tax teams could shed salary. A widespread cost-cutting spree could define this year's trade market.

Current luxury-tax picture:

The Suns (Josh Okogie for Nick Richards) and Lakers (D'Angelo Russell and Maxwell Lewis for Dorian Finney-Smith and Shake Milton) already significantly reduced their impending tax bills via trade. Phoenix and Los Angeles could further reduce tax liability.

Who will join them?

If you think Glen Taylor is going to pay $99 million of luxury tax for a team that's barely over .500, I have a bridge franchise to sell you. The Timberwolves have paid the tax only once in the in the lasts 17 years – 2020, when they probably would have somehow found their way out of the tax if coronavirus hadn't unexpectedly shut down the season. That was a mere $500,000 payment.

The Suns have an even worse record and even higher tax liability. Though Mat Ishbia is clearly willing to spend big, everyone has limits.

The Lakers, Heat and 76ers face the highest tax bills in their franchise histories.

Despite the Lakes' giant market and fan base, the Buss Family has often resisted spending to the highest levels.

Heat owner Micky Arison was wary of spending big, even when Miami had the big three. An imminent-looking Jimmy Butler trade is a prime opportunity to cut salary.

76ers owner Josh Harris paid the tax once the franchise emerged from the tanking years of The Process, but not quite this much. And not in a year going so horribly.

Milwaukee has paid the tax previous four years. But before that, not since the first year tax was assessed, when – under a different system – teams couldn't know whether they'd be charged the tax. This is is still a small market.

Despite Stan Kroenke's reputation for cheapness, Denver has paid the tax previous two years. But before that, not since 2010. The Nuggets project to be one of the NBA's most expensive teams the next couple years. Jamal Murray's extension begins next season, Aaron Gordon's the season after that. Though Murray's extension is far larger and has drawn more attention, Gordon will receive nearly as large of a raise when his extension takes effect, as the Nuggets finagled keeping his salary lower initially in exchange for an opt-in-and-extension with a 140% boost. In 2026-27, Christian Braun and Peyton Watson will also be up for big raises as their cheap rookie-scale contracts end. Assuming they stay in the tax this year, the Nuggets would begin paying the repeater rate next year.

Boston guard Jaden Springer is one of the most obvious dump candidates in the league. If they offloaded Springer and replaced him with a minimum-salary free agent today, the Celtics would project to save about $12 million in luxury tax. The savings would be even higher closer to the trade deadline.

The Cavaliers, Pelicans, Clippers, Mavericks and Warriors are all spitting distance from dodging the tax entirely – and collecting the tax distribution given to non-taxpaying teams.

New Orleans is an absolute lock to escape the tax. The Pelicans have never paid the tax, and they're not going to start when they're 12-32. It feels like they're – barely – over the tax line for sport, just so David Griffin has something to do before the deadline.

Cleveland is even closer to the tax line. The Cavs would probably pay more luxury tax if they can meaningfully upgrade their roster. If they can't, it seems almost foolish not to get out.

The Warriors and Clippers face the repeater rate this year. After years of giant spending, they – especially Golden State – could eye a season of relief and a step toward resetting their repeater-rate clocks.

The Knicks and Mavericks look most comfortable with their impending luxury-tax bills. But barely below its second-apron hard cap, New York basically can't add salary. So, any trade – even if made completely for on-court reasons – would probably reduce the Knicks' tax level.

Just about $4 million over the tax line, Dallas must at least consider getting under. Plus, because of so many unlikely incentives that count toward apron levels, the Mavericks are barely below their first-apron hard cap. A salary-cutting trade could allow them to use more of their MLE on a bought-out player.

Dumping grounds

If so many taxpaying teams are going to shed salary, those contracts must go somewhere.

The Pistons are famously the only team with cap room, about $14 million.

But several other teams are positioned to take additional salary – especially given the new rule that allows teams to use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception and room exception for trades.

Both the Raptors and Wizards can take about $10 million without crossing into the tax themselves – Toronto with its MLE, Washington with the Daniel Gafford trade exception (which expires just after trade deadline).

In addition to its cap space, Detroit has the nearly $8 million room exception. As does Utah, plus the $6 million Kelly Olynyk trade exception with tax room to use both.

Even good teams could get in on the act.

The Rockets have their MLE and nearly $11 million below tax line. The Thunder and Magic still have their $8 million room exceptions with more than enough room below the tax line. Maybe they could extract good players from tax teams. Or if a straight salary dump with a sweetener, further add to their already-impressive coffers.

All-Star starters

All-Star starters:

Eastern Conference

Guards

• Donovan Mitchell
• Jalen Brunson

Frontcourt

• Giannis Antetokounmpo
• Jayson Tatum
• Karl-Anthony Towns

Western Conference

Guards

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
• Stephen Curry

Frontcourt

• Nikola Jokic
• LeBron James
• Kevin Durant

John, Nate and I all would have had Evan Mobley over Karl-Anthony Towns and Victor Wembanyama over LeBron James.

John and Nate would have had Darius Garland over Donovan Mitchell.

John would have had Anthony Davis over Kevin Durant. Nate would have had Jaren Jackson Jr. over Durant.

I would have had Luka Doncic over Stephen Curry.

Generation

The current NBA generation has become so entrenched.

Every 2025 All-Star starter has been an All-Star before. Only Jalen Brunson hasn't had multiple prior All-Star appearances. Only Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns haven't started multiple prior All-Star games.

This year's All-Star starters by number of career All-Star starts:

• LeBron James 21
• Kevin Durant 13
• Stephen Curry 10
• Giannis Antetokounmpo 9
• Nikola Jokic 5
• Jayson Tatum 3
• Donovan Mitchell 2
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2
• Karl-Anthony Towns 1
• Jalen Brunson 1

With 67 combined career All-Star starts (including this year), the 2025 All-Star starter class breaks the all-time record. The 2013 class had 64 combined:

• Kobe Bryant 15
• Kevin Garnett 11
• LeBron James 9
• Dwyane Wade 8
• Dwight Howard 6
• Carmelo Anthony 5
• Chris Paul 4
• Kevin Durant 3
• Blake Griffin 2
• Rajon Rondo 1

Eventually, the current generation will give way to something new. But right now, the faces of the league are very familiar.

LaMelo Ball

LaMelo Ball – who led Eastern Conference guards in fans votes – came just two media votes (one if it came from a Damian Lillard voter) from being an All-Star starter.

Ball could still make it as a reserve, but odds are against him in a crowded guard field. His best chance was leveraging the fan vote with just enough media and player votes. (He finished No. 3 with players, behind starters Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Brunson.)

Nearly a decade into this new system, it still feels a little weird for fan vote not to solely determine All-Star starters. Players who would've been All-Star starters if still determined by fan vote with an asterisk noting All-Star reserves (actual All-Star starter):

• 2025 East guard: LaMelo Ball (Jalen Brunson)
• 2024 East guard: Trae Young* (Jalen Brunson)
• 2023 West frontcourt: Anthony Davis* (Zion Williamson)
• 2020 East guard: Kyrie Irving (Kemba Walker)
• 2019 East guard: Dwyane Wade* (Kemba Walker)
• 2019 West guard: Derrick Rose (James Harden)
• 2019 West frontcourt: Luka Doncic (Kevin Durant)
• 2018 West guard: Manu Ginobili (James Harden)
• 2018 West frontcourt: DeMarcus Cousins* (Draymond Green)
• 2017 East guard: Dwyane Wade (DeMar DeRozan)
• 2017 West frontcourt: Zaza Pachulia (Anthony Davis)
• 2017 East frontcourt: Joel Embiid (Jimmy Butler)

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic's line in the Nuggets win over the Kings last night – 35 points, 22 rebounds and 17 assists – is a first in NBA history.

There are 58 games in league history with a unique combination of points, rebounds and assists. Many occurred in overtime games, players taking advantage of the extra time to accumulate stats.

Jokic has three career unmatched points-rebounds-assists games (37 points, 18 rebounds and 15 assists against the Mavericks in November, 26 points, 16 rebounds and 18 assists against the Pelicans in 2023). None of Jokic's three included overtime.

That means Jokic has the most unmatched points-rebounds-assist non-overtime games since Wilt Chamberlain (21… 24 total, including overtime games).

Trade rumors

Lots of great trade-market intel from Tim Bontemps and Brian Windhorst of ESPN.

Jazz-Suns

Jazz general manager Justin Zanik called the Suns' 2031 first-round pick "the most valuable asset on the market right now."

Quite the claim, but hard to disagree. Kevin Durant will be 42 then. Out its own picks, Phoenix can't easily pivot into rebuilding. Likely frozen picks beyond 2031 will limit the Suns' ability to maneuver.

That said, 2031 is so far away. So much can happen between now and then. Phoenix could bottom out sooner and be on its way back up.

But there's value in upside, and Utah gained a lot with that pick.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have gone 4-0 since Danny noted they were nearing clinching their under.

However, New Orleans must still win one of its next five to avoid joining the ignominious club of teams that clinched their under before their 50th game.

The Pelicans had a preseason over/under of 46.5, meaning their 36th loss would clinch the under. At 44 games into their season, they're 12-32 thanks to their recent hot streak.

Still, the under could hit by Game 48.

Just three teams on record* have clinched an under in an 82-game season more quickly than New Orleans could, with a fourth in the sub-50-game club:

Pelicans' upcoming schedule:

• at Grizzlies
• at Hornets
• at Raptors
• vs. Mavericks
• vs. Celtics

Good luck!

*Via Sports odds history: Every team since since 1999-00 plus 1997-98, 1996-97 and 1993-94 and some teams in 1995-96

Charles Barkley

Before Malik Monk did it the other day, I couldn't recall someone missing a dunk because the ball bounced off his head and back through the rim.

Charles Barkley had it happen THREE times in a 1987 game!

More details via subscriber Matt.

Barkley argued to no avail his baskets should have counted. When he saw a picture of the ball in the net just above his head while he hung on the rim (included in the link), he claimed it was proof he was right.

However, unless the rule was different back then, a field goal is successful only once the ball passes through (or remains in) the net, not the rim.

-Dan Feldman