Hypothetical: How well would Larry Bird and Magic Johnson translate to today? Also, who be better overall, defensively, offensively, etc.? For instance, I know Bird had great defensive instincts for playing the passing lanes/help defender and was gritty/tough, but I’m not sure about on-ball defensive and what not. Thanks for your time and keep up the great work!
- Alright everyone, let's get started! I've thought quite often about this question. Bird actually made some all-D teams early in his career, at a time when there just weren't many great defenders at forward. On-ball he'd probably struggle, maybe akin to like Danilo Gallinari's progression as a defender over the years. Off-ball, he would probably be taking a zillion charges and pissing me off, while also being a really good rebounder in a team sense with boxing out and whatnot. I don't think Bird's offensive rebounding would translate to today since he wouldn't be around the basket nearly as much. He could certainly come off screens and shoot 3s, and probably shoot really deep ones. If you put a smaller guy on him he could beast in the post, and a bigger guy he could work off the ball against. He would have to play in the right system though because he couldn't really be an on-ball PnR threat, and probably not as effective in iso vs like-sized players. He could be used a lot more in pick and pop for 3s than he was back then. So you'd need the right pieces around him but I think he could be nearly as effective offensively today in a movement based system. He could also kind of operate in similar fashion to Jokic offensively inside the arc with cutters flying around off him, and then if you back off even slightly he pulls the J in your eye. His high release on his shot would also still let him score against good defenders. I watched a game a few weeks ago vs the '91 Bulls and he was scoring plenty effectively vs Horace Grant and Scottie Pippen, both of whom are comparable to some of the better defenders today in terms of athleticism. Magic, I'm not sure he would translate quite as well...
- Magic's passing would be amazing obviously, he'd probably be the best passer in basketball today. His transition game would also be really good. I do question how well his scoring game would translate and whether he would be able to get 2 on the ball in the halfcourt to really unlock his passing. He could probably get into the post against smaller players. I'd love to know the numbers on that baby hook shot that he had. But Magic never had a great midrange game facing the basket. And he did develop a standstill 3 later in his career and likely would have done so earlier in today's game, he couldn't really shoot a traditional jumper on the move. I think he was also quite worse defensively than Bird and would have to be hidden, as his rim protection was miserable for a 6'9 guy and he wouldn't be getting through a screen on the perimeter and probably would be a target overall on D. Magic was an incredibly smart player, but I just wonder whether his scoring might limit him. If you think of some of the limitations of say Josh Giddey, who is obviously still young, but is probably the closest analog in terms of playing style (not effectiveness) to Magic in today's game, there could be a ceiling on Magic's scoring. So he might be more like a top-10 player than a top-3 as he was back in the 80s.
At one point folks predicted that the free agent market would pause for the KD trade like it did for Kawhi a few years ago. That didn’t appear to happen. Any thoughts on why?
- I think the only true example of a market pause in the last 10 years was LeBron in 2014, when we didn't get many signings until like July 11 or whatever it was when he signed. Kawhi, there were a few things like Danny Green that couldn't happen until Kawhi but most stuff was done in 2019. Even without Kawhi Danny and I recorded for almost 4 hours on the first day of 2019 free agency so most was done in the first 2 days, then there were maybe like 5 signings or so that happened after Kawhi. As for KD, I think it became clear that the deal wasn't happening immediately. Also, so many deals are done now before you even get to free agency that those were going to happen regardless--people weren't backing out of those.
I know you’re down on Jabari Smith Jr as a prospect, but if he basically becomes Ryan Anderson on offense, and above average defender who can guard 3-5 on defense, how valuable of a player is that?
- That's probably the equivalent of a $20-$25m a year player (not cap inflation adjusted), if that's what ends up happening. which isn't atrocious as the #3 pick at all. We'll see if he's that level of shooter, as I mentioned on the pod I was a little concerned with how the J looked in Summer League. And being able to guard the 5 is also a question. But really I'd say I'm "down" on Jabari because I don't believe in him as having much superstar potential, which is kinda what you're looking for in the top-3. Once he went 3rd though rather than 1st, it's a lot harder to be "down" on him than if he were taken over Chet and Paolo.
Flip side of this: who are the 3 best contracts in the NBA who aren't over $25M and also aren't rookie scale?
- Gonna save this one for a pod I think.
Considering the Draymond situation and other retention issues, could a mechanism in the CBA that lessened the cap hit for long tenure players on max deals make sense.
For instance, let's say Dray, Klay and Steph all sign their maxes but for salary cap purposes they all count only half or 3/4 the full payment? It would incentivize teams and players to stay together long term by even further weighing the money leverage toward a long term home in one franchise
- I'm in agreement that making it too hard to retain players you drafted makes things difficult. But we could definitely see some unintended consequences here. I'd want this exception to be pretty limited, e.g. players with 9 or more years experience who have been with the same franchise their entire career. That could chill player movement in theory, but for guys like that it's not the end of the world. The question becomes though, what if those guys get traded? Do you give them a no-trade? Do you just prevent them from being traded at all? Because you don't want to trade them and give another team the benefit, but if the other team has to pay the full freight then it's really hard to trade those deals. I think in the end, just making the luxury tax less punitive is what I'd prefer, but that will never happen. Small market owners (wrongly) believe it protects them competitively and (rightly) believe it protects their profits because they "can't" go into the tax, and basically in today's NBA if you don't go into the tax it's nearly impossible to lose money.
Do you have any fun classic games on YouTube to watch? One I turn on every now and then is suns/nets in 06. It goes to 2 OT and features primeish versions of Shawn Marion, Steve Nash, Amare, Diaw and Raja bell vs Kidd, VC and Richard Jefferson. Extremely high scoring and not the typical game from that era. https://youtu.be/45xBoYTLSCA
- Games 4 and 5 of the '93 East Finals is up there for me. If I can ever watch an '05 Suns game when they were fully healthy and clicking, I'm there. With Joe Johnson and pre-injury Amare, that was the first Nash year and the league had no fucking clue how to deal with them. This would be a great pod also!
It seems as though the talent level is rising across the league, do you think the gap between the absolute stars and all-star level players is closing? Would this allow teams without a star to be competitive for a championship?
- No, I don't think I would say that in the end. Maybe because we don't have LeBron at his peak anymore and he was one of the top 2 players ever, it may seem like the absolute top end isn't as good as it was, but it's still pretty good. I think this is a good experiment: How many guys could you put in Giannis place for the '21 Bucks to win? How about in Steph's place for the '22 Warriors? LeBron's place for the '20 Lakers? Let's say you're taking a guy at the same position, say a Dame or Chris Paul, or maybe Donovan Mitchell in Steph's place. Warriors aren't coming anywhere close IMO.
Hey Nate! Thanks for doing these chats. I’m curious, can a team swap a swap. For example, the Pels can swap the lakers 2023 pick, but could the lakers offer a 3rd team the right to swap that pick as well after the Pels make their decision? If you’re a team that expects to be better than both the Pels and Lakers that could be a small sweetener in a trade.
- Absolutely. In fact, that's what happened with the Royce O'Neale trade, where Utah was given the worst of 2023 HOU/BRK/PHI. BRK already owed swap rights to Houston from the Harden trade, and had Philly's 2023 pick from the second Harden trade, so they gave Utah the worst of those 3 and has the 2nd best for itself.
Looking at Warriors 2023-24 tax bill, who is most likely to get squeezed?
Slater/MT2 didn’t mention Wiseman, but I feel like he is most logical. To do that would they need to trade him before 2022 deadline for expiring matching money? If so what do you think his value is? Non/back end rotational expiring + a protected first?
- I think there will be enough cap space or trade exception out there to just dump Wiseman next summer, but I agree he's the logical one to get moved if it gets to that point.
In part 1 of the prospect review, you mentioned Sam Hauser playing for Memphis last summer league. Were you confusing him with Sam Merrill?
- Woof, apparently. I've apparently thought Sam Hauser was Sam Merrill this entire time.
Thanks for the time, Nate. If you were the Wizards GM, would you be trying to make a move prior to training camp? At the moment, it seems there is a jam with Avdija, Rui, Barton and Kispert - without including Johnny Davis.
- If I could get anything at all for Rui I'd do it. I'm not sure any of those guys are good enough to constitute a logjam though--let's see if any of them are even starters before we go there. I'd call it more of a twigjam at this point.
Hey nate, just curious what music you happen to enjoy! (for example I love rock and rap/hiphop. But love a little of everything) Hope you’re having a good one
- I AM having a good one, thanks. Enjoying the more relaxed tenor of the offseason where I can consume Sandro Mamukelashvilli film at my leisure. I definitely listen to music, but I'm kind of lazy about discovering new stuff. Usually when I try to find it I can, or I'll be exposed by some TV show or recommendation from a friend. But I so much prefer audio books and podcasts to music, the latter of which I'll only listen to as a change-up in the car or during a workout when a podcast would be too distracting to my attempts to tear my pecs on bench press. And I listen to music while working at times but it can't have any words because that's also too distracting. When I do listen, the old X-ennial standbys of 90s rock and classic rock are up there for me. I definitely listen to an amalgam of modern stuff as well, but I barely keep up with what's considered the most popular music now unless it's in my Spotify discover weekly or release radar, so I couldn't tell you who most of the popular artists are at the moment. Also, I can add that I find music kind of boring to discuss with people generally (not this question of course haha), since unless you really have a technical knowledge it's basically "do you like this, have you heard of this, yeah that's good/bad" and it doesn't really go beyond that.
I heard on a pod recently (believe it was Jake Fischers) that the league might be heading to a place where most players will be on contracts that are max / near max, mid level, and minimum. he cited this past off-season as an example of that trend. do you agree?
just wanna add that I always appreciate the summer league pods! get a lot of info on players I would normally be behind on
- I think as cap space rises around the league and teams that are actually trying to win will have space, that may be less the case. You also need more players to become free agents who are actually good. Basically one guy got a big contract changing teams this year and that was Brunson. But there will always be players who get extensions, particularly rookie scale extensions. And I think there are only so many "max players" to go around. For example, Mikal Bridges only got just over $20m a year in an extension. I think under that conception, he'd be getting the max. Because the system is set up so that good players on rookie deals and superstars are both underpaid, there's this middle class money that results in those players being the most overpaid. And the difference between say the 60th and 100th best player is not the difference between the max and the midlevel. So you see the money more evenly distributed throughout that group.
We've seen a lot of examples of teams who try to short circuit rebuilds by overspending on splashy free agents too soon (e.g. Hawks in Trae Young era), but you could argue that Rockets are in a different position next offseason given that OKC has their 2024 pick. With that in mind, if you were GM of the Rockets, knowing you have tons of cap space coming up in a year with a so so free agent class, which superstars would you be telling your your players to befriend and extol the wonders of playing for the Rockets so that they can ask for trades to Houston? Improbably, but if things go south in Phoenix I wouldn't mind convincing CP3 a second time given he'd have just one guaranteed year left and his rep for helping young teams overachieve. Is there anyone like that you see them targeting?
- Yeah, that's an interesting one particularly because Phoenix may decide he's too expensive and want to trade CP rather than waive him if they peter out this year. I think just a solid 3 and D wing or a really good defensive center would help Houston a lot, maybe Andrew Wiggins or Myles Turner among next year's free agents. Certainly a steady PG who can run the show would be a boon to these young guys. But I think they need defense and shooting in the pipeline the most rather than a star because I'm not sure the rest of the team is ready to win yet.
on a few pods you've mentioned concern with the nuggets backup PG spot. do you not consider Bones to be a viable option there? if so, do you think that's an eventual possibility for bones, or do you see his long term future as simply being an off ball guy?
- Yeah I think Bones doesn't run the team that well, and is also going to be a huge liability on defense. I do think they're going to use Bruce Brown a little in that role, plus they may play Murray on the second unit. Getting Brown does alleviate some of my concerns.
What do you think is the most likely way the Colin sexton contract situation resolves?
- Yeah, this is really one of the most miserable RFA situations I can remember for the player. As I've talked about before, it will be exceedingly difficult for him not to get locked into both a salary and more importantly a role commensurate with being a bench guy, and with no opportunity to prove he can do more going forward. Ultimately to me it depends what the offer is. Chris Fedor said on his pod the last offer was 3/$40, and at that level I'd just take the $7.2m qualifying offer if I'm Sexton. If they offered him something in the mid teens, then maybe you have to take that.
On that front, do you think that a Kuzma + Avdija package for John Collins is somewhat fair?
- Yeah, I think that would be pretty good. And I like that Collins could be more of a roll man with Porzingis spacing out, while Atlanta gets some more defensive versatility around Trae. Atlanta would need to be able to feel confident they could keep Kuzma though.
Who do see as candidates for MIP this season? In particular, who do you think has had a good opportunity open up for them based on roster changes?
- The history of the awards is that you don't get it unless you're all of a sudden at least scoring 20 or getting to a near All-Star or All-Star level. I generally eschew 2nd-year guys for this, but I think Cade will probably end up getting a lot of love for the actual award. Perhaps Jalen Green as well. LaMelo is an interesting one, as is Anthony Edwards. Tyrese Maxey is another candidate. Anfernee Simons if he just does what he did for 1.5 months last year for a full year and Portland gets back in playoffs. I'd probably go with Edwards. Of course, part of what makes this award hard to predict is that it's usually an unexpected improvement!
Hi Nate. If you were the Bulls would you trade Pat Williams? I think I would, if no other reason than even if you think he could develop into a high usage offensive player (which I don’t), he’ll never get the touches to develop into one give the high-usage possessions that LaVine, Vuc, and DeRozan will soak up.
- Yeah I just don't see the highest end upside on either end with Williams. He could develop into that solid wing role player, but if you have the opportunity to trade for a big upgrade I'd consider it. I think the risk of him having a bad year and suddenly having zero trade value is greater than the risk of him breaking out elsewhere, but obviously the organization believes in him having taken him 4th and he's their only "out" towards being competitive over the next 5-7 years given the draft equity they traded away and how they're kind of middle of the pack right now. As for not getting the touches to develop, I think it's pretty rare for players who have the skill level to not be able to show it at least a little, even if there are other mouths to feed. And I don't think Vuc is part of the long-term for this group so I'm not worried about him blocking Williams from a touches standpoint. I'm just skeptical of his offensive ability to take advantage of more touches right now.
Of the realistic suitors and deals for KD, where do you think it would be the most fun for him to go?
- Talked about this with John yesterday, I think it'd be by far the most fun for him to actually stay in Brooklyn and see what this Simmons/Kyrie/KD team could do at full strength. Sorry if that's a boring answer, but the idea of KD joining another fully formed team is kinda boring. I like the idea of him having his own team.