Hey Nate. Kupchak came out today and saying Charlotte wants to retain miles bridges this season. I’m skeptical on whether to believe this or not based on what happened with kemba. Do you believe Kupchak/what about this situation with Charlotte now versus Kembas last year in Charlotte would make this more appealing for Charlotte to keep Bridges?
- First off, this is pretty much skirting the line on what has been an issue between PA and the league before. Teams are not allowed to say publicly that they'll match any offer because it chills the market, and this comes very very close to that. Reports indicate they're still apart on a deal. The reason to believe it will happen is because right now, at this moment, it should. While the Hornets erred in not trading away Kemba, when it came time to give him a massive new contract it didn't make sense for either their franchise or, in the end, anyone else. The C's got one good half year out of him at an All-Star level and then he basically has been broken down since then. Bridges is a good player who just took a leap forward. They have no other way to get a talent like him into the pipeline. In the near term it's an overpay to max him, sure. But he could easily grow into that deal and if not, he's still just overpaid by a few million. He could plausibly be their 2nd best player, and they have nobody else who could possibly do that.
What similarities do you see between Ime Udoka’s first year and Nick Nurse’s first year in Toronto? If the Celtics had won the title (2 games away is close yet also seems a little far) would that have changed where Ime ranks among coaches going into next year? I feel like I remember Nurse going straight to 1 or 2 after winning the title. Does winning those extra two games validate the decisions and process they use any more than otherwise?
- A big part of why Nurse was so feted was his many lineup and strategy moves that got them thru some classic series against great opponents. Udoka may not be number 1 (in part because Steve Kerr beat him in the Finals) but he'll be very high on the list. However, there weren't quite the same obvious and unique adjustments that we saw from Nurse, although I do think he did quite well overall and I'm guessing will be in my top-5.
Who had the worst draft and why is it the Timberwolves?
- I actually think Walker Kessler is going to be really good, although a caveat that I watched little of him and Moore. They need to get better defensively around KAT and I think this showed that strategy. Minot is also someone that a lot of people liked with great rates of stocks. I don't know anything about Spagnolo but they have a roster crunch so a stash guy is good. I think Kessler can be a Poeltl like defender.
Nate, I was really surprised that TJ Warren could only get the tax payer MLE in the mock offseason, given he's the only starting quality small forward available in free agency. Wouldn't the Pacers at least have interest in a one year ten million make good deal where they keep his bird rights and he could benefit more from a prove it deal? What do you see as his actual salary range?
- In the mock the Pacers seemed like they were heading towards rebuilding and Warren didn't make as much sense. But his overall market doesn't seem to be there since he hasn't proved he's healthy. I think if we'd seen him on the floor at the end of the year it might have been different. You know I think he's really underrated when healthy. As the agent, I prioritized going to a team where he'd have a definitive playoff role if not healthy to start the season.
In your Jabari Smith scouting report, I found it enlightening when you went into a brief analysis of how Smith could prove your projection wrong. How often and how much do you let those internal counterarguments inform your analysis? It was an excellent thought experiment to listen to, since so much of draft analysis and "new team, new role" free agency signings (i.e. Brunson to the Knicks?) are conjecture. Thanks and love the show!
- I try to do this for every analysis of every player to the extent I can, and also try to come up with how likely this is, and what it would mean. I also at least have the benefit in the draft of only scouting guys projected in the top-10 range, so I can focus on upside a little more than those evaluating guys later in the draft.
Why do you think there were less rotation level players changing teams at the draft than in previous years?
- I think last year there weren't many either. Gonna try to go back and look at the last few drafts and see what the avg was..........2021 was zero for first rounders day of, but the JV/Adams/Bled trade was made beforehand. 2022 was Jerami Grant if that counts as "at the draft". 2020 I think was Rubio from OKC to MIN in the Poku trade. Also the CP trade was before the draft as well, just a little earlier. The Bane trade was Boston dumping Kanter. Probably need to get on to other questions here rather than really establishing if this is a trend. However, if it is, I'd say it's bad teams having more of an idea that they're bad and it's not worth moving lottery picks for vets. We saw Washington and Portland rumored to do that this year, but neither went that way. We're also seeing teams with future picks being the ones making trades into the draft rather than using vets to do it.
what would be your preferred landing spots, as a basketball fan, for some of the high-end players rumored to be moved - gobert, turner, collins, dejounte, ayton, simmons, etc
- Turner I want to head to the Nets. I'd like to see a Gobert/Ayton swap. Collins.....I guess San Antonio since they'd let him postup and we could see what that looked like. Murray......I kinda like Zach Lowe's idea of Minnesota. Although I think a team giving up tons of assets for Murray would be a mistake and he's one of the most overrated players in the NBA right now after making that All-Star team as an injury replacement.
Forgive me if you've talked about this somewhere else, but any thoughts on the Murray to the Hawks smoke? Latest report I saw was for salary filler and picks. This feels like a trade both Hawks and Spurs fans are sort of on the fence about. Hawks fans I've talked to aren't sure he fits well enough to justify a ton of picks. Spurs fans don't think they should give him up without getting a huge haul. But both see the reasoning behind it and know their teams have to make some moves to improve short/long-term respectively.
- I definitely think the Spurs should take on as many long-term assets as possible and get serious about rebuilding. With Murray having 2 years left and probably not extendable given his lower base salary (and, frankly, not wanting to pay his next contract), this is a great time to move him. For the Hawks, they're kind of going to end up in the same place the Blazers did for awhile. A best player in the 9-12 range in the league, and commensurate results with that even when building around him. I like the idea of Murray as your primary on-ball defender, and also a guy who can take the pressure off Trae in the playoffs. But I'm not sure Murray would have really helped them against the Heat because I don't see him as someone who can beat switches and he could end up as a shooting liability. He would at least help them a lot in the dreaded non-Trae minutes. If the price is 2 firsts, then I could see that. Three?....................
How real was Obi Toppin’s surge at towards the end of the season and how should the Knicks be treating him going forward? He has shown better defense and passing than I expected but his half court offensive game is only middling. Where is he going as a player?
- I will admit to not being as focused on that irrelevant (from a team perspective) Knicks surge once they were already eliminated. I continue to think Toppin could end up with kind of a Bobby Portis like impact someday, although getting there somewhat differently with less shooting and posting up, more transition and inside finishing. But he's ultimately a center on offense and a ? on defense but not a center, and not a switch guy. So he'd need to be ridiculous on O to be a starter.
Speaking of Zach Lowe, some of us have been dying for a Lowe/Duncan podcast. That would be awesome
- Nekias was on there just a few weeks ago! Seriously though, I know Zach and consider him a friend of the pod. He's told me he listens at least some. He also really helped grow things for me back in 2014 when he followed Bob Voulgaris in recommending people follow me on Twitter, and I went from like 2500 to 10k followers in 2 days and that ended up being a base to expand from. So I'm in his debt and I think he does a really good job of trying to promote up and coming people. He also has never invited me on his show, and I definitely would never invite myself on anybody's show. I've invited him on once before, and it didn't end up happening. So I'm not really the type to pester people about something about that. We're all extremely busy, I turn down podcasts all the time and it's nothing personal, so I don't take it that way either.
Which young core would you buy in on as having the most sustained success…Hou, OKC, Det or Orlando?
- Great question. I think we've discussed this before in one forum or another, but worth revisiting after the draft. I think Cade is the best prospect on all those teams by a pretty large margin, with SGA 2nd, Green 3rd, Paolo 4th. I like Houston's overall approach of the team they're trying to build the most of those teams, probably Detroit's the least, with Orlando and OKC TBD. I worry Detroit just doesn't value shooting enough. I think you can actually make arguments for each of the 4 at this point. OKC still has the most unused assets going forward, then HOU, then ORL, then DET. OKC and Houston have the most "outs" in terms of prospects already on the roster who could hit as well. So if you force me to choose, I think I'd say OKC, HOU, DET, ORL. It really could be in any order though at this point. That will be an interesting thing to track as it's really exciting to have 4 teams with a lot of young talent like this all at once who are clearly in rebuilding mode.
It seems like a foregone conclusion that Jalen Brunson will end up in either New York or Dallas, being paid in the $25 million per year range. WATFO that he ends up elsewhere? WATFO that Jalen Brunson and his reps are able to pit teams against one another and push that number up to $30 mil?
- I don't think the number gets to $30m, so call that 10%. Anywhere other than Dallas or NYK, I'd call that 5% at this point. Nowhere else seems to be in on him, nor is there anywhere he'd rather be.
What’s your prediction for the hornets this coming season? Maybe make it out of the play-in for once?
- 10th seed and blowout loss in the 9/10 game. Honestly, too early to say at this point. No idea what happens with Bridges, whether they can get other frontcourt reinforcements, Hayward trade and potential health. So I'll wait to make a prediction until preseason, or at least until we see what their team looks like.
Initial thoughts on victor wembanyama?
- Very very initial thoughts having watched one game of him last summer vs USA: Looks like he could be unbelievable on both ends, particularly some of these videogame blocks. But I'm extremely wary of guys his height staying healthy or being able to make a consistent impact. So for now I'd probably consider myself lower than consensus just due to that and nothing to do w/ his game.
Which 2nd/3rd year player are you most excited to watch in summer league?
- The guys who haven't had that much opportunity to show what they can do with the ball on good teams. James Wiseman is on the list for sure. Same with Kuminga, although Slater says their participation could be up in the air. Ziaire Williams would be another in that mold. Kai Jones I'd like to see if he's made some progress. Same with Usman Garuba, although worth noting SL isn't as conducive to those guys. Day'Ron Sharpe is another. I'd also expect some of the bucket-getters like Cam Thomas to kill.
When talking about the Lakers assets I only ever hear people mention the ‘27 and ‘29 draft picks. It doesn’t sound like they’re interested in using draft equity, but technically they could offer swaps in ‘24 or ‘25, ‘26, and ‘28, correct? If they were theoretically willing to go “all in” using the 2 pick and 3 pick swaps, what options do you think would open up for them? What if some/all of those picks/swaps were unprotected? My “fantasy basketball” trade would be Westbrook, THT, and as many of those assets as it takes to get back all 3 of Brogdon, Hield, and Turner. Theoretically, would all of those lakers assets be enough? Any other crazy ideas?
- Having not dealt with deferred picks before, I'm not sure if they could swap picks that aren't in a defined year due to the swap, but I think that would be doable. And that would be a somewhat interesting return, although Buchanan said on radio today they're not shopping Turner. I think though my first priority would be to get into camp and see whether AD and LeBron look like they can anchor a championship team still, because for all their issues last year AD in particular wasn't that guy. If they are playing great, then I think you try to make that move at the trade deadline, where you also tend to get more bang for your buck in trades with more teams out of it and the Russ contract not as much of a problem to take on for a team that's out of it and in sell mode.
What team do you foresee having the biggest jump up in the standings from last season to this upcoming season and then what team do you see taking the biggest step backwards from last year?
- Ooh good one. I assume we're talking just wins here, not necessarily place in the standings since everyone was so bunched. Let's throw out some candidates. Drop: Suns, Bulls, Jazz, Wolves, Spurs. don't feel great about any of these except Suns, who had good luck last year and could get CP decline and loss of Ayton. The problem is even a team like the Jazz didn't really fulfill its potential record-wise, so it's hard to predict a big drop as long as they still have Mitchell. I think the big answer is just whichever team gets injuries like Portland and Indiana did this year. I also think Cleveland could be a sneaky faller, as could the Wolves. They're young but also made big jumps and we're hoping the league is better next year. For rises: Clippers, Nets, Lakers, Pels,
How much of the "I'll edit this out" do you think actually make the cut?
- Hahaha, about 50% if that. We actually have to edit so rarely now that I forget to check where I write it down before I post. Also--it doesn't really matter unless it's a major error. You all aren't listening for the production quality, although I do think our audio quality is pretty solid by this point.
Nate, did you get a chance to check out johnny Davis at all this cycle?
- Other than watching Keandre's video, I didn't. So interested to see him in Summer League.
Thoughts on Boston's offseason priorities (or specific targets)? People debating PG playmaker but to me I think wing or a depth big seem as pressing. The price for Collins/Murray is probably too rich and there are some interesting TPE targets (Huerter, KCP, Kuzma, Crowder, Burks). Brogdon would be interesting but health and money (> TPE) mean a no go, likely. Not sure BOS will be in the running for the cream-of-the-crop Tax MLE guys like Wes Matthews, Warren, Gary Harris, Otto Porter, Hartenstein, etc. Just feels very up in the air
- I think I think actually the biggest thing they could use would be a legit shooter with size, someone who could come off screens and give the offense another element, but obviously defend well enough to play. More wing depth would certainly be nice. Theis is good enough as a 3rd center so I wouldn't say bigs. A more traditional backup PG would be nice too, but that compromises the theory of their defense likely and that's what makes them great. I think you roll with largely this group, and then adjust at the deadline. My biggest concern with them right now is regular season depth because they dumped everyone lower on the roster who can play at the deadline.
Is strength an underrated asset in the NBA?… This years playoffs coupled with the change in rules to de-emphasize BS fouls and allow more physicality make me believe certain player types are even less likely to succeed going forward.
- I think it got overrated at one point, particularly as the game changed to allow less contact. However, it did seem like by the end of the Boston/GSW series they weren't calling handchecking fouls except when guys would throw some BS shot up to highlight it. I think it's more of an issue on defense, because of you just get overwhelmed physically at the basket that's harder to deal with than a guy attacking a slower player on the perimeter. You see the difference in strength between say Steph earlier in his career and now for example.
Who are some of your biggest risers and fallers in terms of the position rankings as a result of the post season? Are there any players who made major tier jumps?
- Sorry I didn't get to this one in time. Brunson would go up a fair amount maybe as high as mid-teens. Grant Williams. Jimmy Butler maybe? Andrew Wiggins. DFS. Ayton probably goes down some, although maybe not a full tier. I think I had him at 6 among centers. Bane maybe goes up, Anthony Edwards goes up.
Would you change the criteria for supermax extensions? The worst contracts in the NBA are supermax extensions for guys that just barely meet the criteria. A guy who's made 3rd team all NBA once or twice is usually not worth $40M+, and if they fall off a bit or get injured they are a huge albatross. Teams are often forced to choose between overpaying to keep the guy or pissing him off and potentially losing him.
- Last one here. I would change it so that everyone is eligible for the 35% max. That might lead to more bad contracts, but it would also align players' best years better with when they're being paid the most. I don't believe too much in saving the owners from themselves.