Is Embiid this generation's Patrick Ewing?
- No, I would say he's way better than Patrick when healthy. If Patrick could have combined his early years scoring and athleticism with the defense of those 92-96 Knicks teams, then maybe they'd be more similar. But Patrick didn't have the offensive impact that Embiid has had this year. Embiid is one of the highest usage players in the league. He's also got way more moves than Patrick and is just a better low post scorer. And I think he's about Patrick's equal defensively when locked in.
Would the 2019 raptors still have won the championship if you substituted Jokic in for Kawhi?
- If you subbed in 2019 Jokic for 2019 Kawhi I'm guessing you mean? Well Jokic also subs in for Gasol, who was huge vs Embiid that year. And they get much lighter on wing D because OG wasn't healthy. Remember Kawhi guarding Giannis turned that series. So I think they lose to Philly. Hard to know how the Raps would have looked with Jokic at C on offense. Maybe there's a reasonable argument that they'd get better on offense, but it'd also be hard to be better than Kawhi was with his isolation shot-creating in that Philly series. Remember the Raps couldn't hit a 3 for much of that series, so Philly with Embiid to guard Jokic and then potentially double-teaming would have likely been effective. More importantly, Kawhi played 2 of the best playoff series ever in rounds 2 and 3. Hard to upgrade on that, especially when you consider you're taking Gasol and Ibaka basically out of the lineup and replacing them with a bad wing with no OG.
WATFO that Matisse Thybulle wins a DPOY in his career?
- Well, I'll put this for whether I'll think he should win it in his career. I think his odds are higher than what they'd be if I were the voter because most voters overrate perimeter defense and underrate big man defense. The steals and blocks are really impressive. I want to see him in a playoff setting guarding the best guy on the other team. Also, I'm against putting guys on All-defensive teams who don't even play at least 25-30 mins and close games. How much value can you really have if you aren't even out there at the end?
Back when they were drafted, Randal vs Smart was a thing. If you had current knowledge but were drafting back then, who would you take?
- Tough call. Smart has had the far more valuable career to date. This is Julius' first season where he's really contributed to winning whereas Smart has basically every season. Going forward I'd rather have Randle for most teams, although he could be primed for some shooting regression. He's also a better bet to stay healthy than Smart. But Smart also fits in better on a winning team, as we've seen with him having made deep playoff runs so often. I guess I'd overall rather go with Smart for now, but another great season by Randle next year changes that. Good question--it gets into a lot of the stuff we often do with whether you value a floor raiser over a fit guy on a winning team.
would you favor the jazz in a series against the lakers or the warriors? which do you think the jazz would prefer to see after the play-in and why?
- I would favor the Jazz over the Warriors, particularly with home court. Against the Lakers, I think at full health it would be pretty close with the Jazz having home court but if fully healthy I'd pick the Lakers. But the Lakers may not be fully healthy, and I think they need LeBron and AD both at their peak to beat the Jazz. One thing about the Lakers is that unless they play AD at center, and perhaps even if they do, they can't space Gobert out the way the Clippers can. And he's going to play 40 mins in the playoffs. HOWEVER......if the Jazz and Lakers do play it's in the West Finals. And THAT would mean that the Lakers rolled thru their side of the bracket but the Jazz also beat the Clippers, meaning they are both playing extremely well. I think I'd go Lakers in 7, but really difficult call. Would depend on how these teams looked in the series coming in.
Hey Nate, you had Josh Richardson multiple tiers above Seth Curry in SG rankings. Their team's respective performance with and without them the last 2 seasons makes me question the value of judging guys "on a random team" rather than in specific team contexts.
Richardson seems more versatile than Curry, so he should fit on more teams, but he isn't very good at anything, whereas Seth's shooting markedly improved the Mavs and Sixers compared to Richardson without hurting their defense. Do you think Seth should've been higher, Richardson lower, or am I just a Sixers homer?
FWIW, no Sixers fan would undo that trade, and I get the sense a lot of Mavs fans would.
- Yeah, Richardson just hasn't been as good as we thought he was. The idea of Richardson holding up better on a random team just wasn't the case. We thought the way he played in Miami would translate and it now appears it has not. In particular, he hasn't been the defensive difference-maker he was (or we thought he was?) in Miami. So I think it's more a misevaluation of how good Richardson was at the things we thought he was good at than a problem with the method overall. Curry is in the perfect spot for him to help at the moment, a team that desperately needs shooting and can make up for his shortcomings on D. He can guard point guards (or whoever the weakest perimeter player is) and will get wide open shots, which he needs because he's not great at shooting on the move and his release is slow for the player type. On most teams, he's probably a third guard rather than a starter for those reasons.
Do you see any teams in the top 8 of the West dropping out of the playoffs next season?
- Sans injuries, I would say I wouldn't favor any of them to. I'm not sure I see Memphis or New Orleans, the prime candidates, making huge leaps forward and the teams below those are rather uninspiring. One thing that could change that is a New Orleans panic trade to appease Zion, or if Lillard wants out in Portland after a rough playoff exit. However, I think I might end up favoring Portland in that Denver series and they could end up in the 2nd round. They could even be competitive against Phoenix if that's the matchup, so they'll potentially get a false sense of where they are again like in 2019. Memphis and New Orleans could certainly see some internal improvement that would change this take though.
Would you have favored the 2019 Sixers and/or Bucks against the Warriors in the Finals? (assuming the same injury situation)
- Yes, I would have favored either of those teams for sure assuming KD only plays 1 quarter and Klay missed 2.25 games as well.
Random question. How does this hot mic app work with synching? Does it just hear the tv?
- yeah, it hears your TV, knows where we are in relationship to our TV, and uses that info to sync us up with your TV. It's extremely impressive technology and it's why we're doing it there this time. I really encourage you to check it out, way lower barrier to entry on the cast compared to the old system where you'd have to pause your TV and sync up with the clock on our screen.
WATFO that each of these numbers will be the biggest?
A = # of all-star appearances made by Paul George after being traded from Indiana (currently 3)
B = # of all-star appearances made by all the players traded for Paul George (Oladipo, Sabonis, SGA, Gallo. Currently 4)
C = # of all-star appearances made by all the draft picks traded for Paul George (currently 0)
- So I'd guess Sabonis and Oladipo are done making all-star teams. So for that one it's basically SGA vs PG going forward, maybe throw in another ~1 for Sabonis, although maybe the Pacers' fall this year will finally disabuse people of the notion he's responsible for their success. I'd guess PG has another 2 All-star seasons in him, so call his number 5. That means SGA just needs to get 1 to tie, which I think is a solid bet, especially b/c I expect OKC to be good at some point while he's there. As for the draft picks, who the hell knows. You've got basically 22-26 to OKC, with 23 and 25 as swap rights. I'd think LAC will be pretty crappy by the end of that period. But I'd guess fewer than 5 for all those picks as the median outcome, although of course if you draft one stud he changes that by himself. So I'd order it 55% players, 25% PG, 20% picks.
if you don’t have a number 1 option is there a point in properly paying your guys who are sub max level or are you better off churning the roster to try and get more shots at a number 1 guy?
- Do you work for the Spurs? Ok, seriously....I guess it depends how good you are. I'd probably default to "never let an asset get away" on these. But of course, the contract in question must make the player an asset, which you can often get for a guy coming off a rookie deal. You can move that player later if need be. However, you also don't want to be in that NBA purgatory area like the Spurs kind of are now, trying to figure out how to get a star. They've had success developing late picks before so maybe they think they can stay reasonable doing that with late lotto-type picks. Also, they don't want to just give Pop a shit team either. Overall though I'd say you want to maintain flexibility and not get mediocre so you can find that next star. The new lottery odds do complicate things though, as you could be Memphis and New Orleans or you could be Cleveland based solely on lottery luck. There's a chance of being totally stuck for longer than before.
What do you think is the tax threshold for the Nets going into next year? Do you think it's possible they bring Dinwiddie back and give everyone their extensions?
- I imagine they'll do something with DeAndre's contract in the offseason to open up a little more room, that should help. I really have no idea what the appetite for spending reaches there. Again though, under the idea of never letting an asset go, I think they offer everyone the extensions and make Dinwiddie an offer of a contract they think would be moveable. They don't face the repeater tax until 2023-24 at least, so I think they'll be profligate as long as the team is a championship contender.
you just referenced another pelicans panic move to appease zion, you have mentioned this in several recent pods. is this something you have insider knowledge on or just speculation? no other major outlets are speaking of zion leaving that i have heard
- have heard a few things to that effect, but it's mostly just reading the tea leaves between his statement about New York ("I'm so glad you asked me that question"), the Pelicans totally screwing up building around him so far despite making win-now moves, JJ Redick's comments about Griffin (he's a CAA client like Zion), Zion maybe having some odd things going on behind the scenes (leaving the bubble, not being in shape, the other agent lawsuit) and most importantly David Griffin's ridiculous performance to try to stand up for Zion after he broke his finger. Throw all that together and I think it's a reasonable possibility.
Is Ben Simmons traded this offseason if the sixers lose second round (doubtful but possible) or lose to Milwaukee or Brooklyn in non-competitive series or even a competitive one
- I don't know who would be available they'd want to move him for. Harden and Beal were the most likely candidates but no longer it seems. But him averaging 7.5 ppg in an ugly loss wouldn't be amazing. However, they're gonna get to the East Finals with easy you'd think due to the bracket being easy and will have homecourt in that series, so that's probably enough progress to forestall any feeling they need to trade him no matter how he plays. And he is critical to their playoff defense.
Hi Nate! Great timing for me living in The Netherlands. Lakers question for you: who would you expect to command more in upcoming free agency between Caruso and THT? Also, with multiple reports surfacing about Schröder wanting over 100 million dollars on his next deal, what would your walking away number as the Lakers be?
- I think THT will command more as a young player and a wing with projectable shooting, ball skills, and defense. Caruso is a solid backup PG so there's a ceiling on how much he goes for and the years. For Dennis, it's a tough call. He seems to be one of the bigger assholes in the league to play with. (That's always been the case with stuff you hear behind the scenes plus add this vaccine fiasco and his outsized salary demands despite a mediocre year). The 4/$84 they offered in the max extension seems like more than I'd want to pay, but I'd have never traded for him in the first place. Much of course depends on their playoff fate. They may want to hold onto him just to have matching salary in a trade. It also depends who is available on the free agent or trade market to replace him, how they think THT will develop and how much he and Caruso get, whether they can retain those guys at all, whether they can use the full MLE on a PG to replace Schroder depending on what THT/Caruso get. But I think anything over $20m a year would be a non-starter for me personally unless he plays awesome in the playoffs.
Which playoff team is the most capable of blowing a 3-1 lead in a series where they were the favorite (or at least close to even-money) going in? Do you feel that way more because of the coach or the players?
- So in a non-bubble scenario, most blown 3-1 leads are with teams that don't have home court, e.g. the 2016 Thunder. You only have that one home game still remaining once you go up 3-1. So I'd probably say Portland. I could also say Miami actually, particularly given the shooting variance of going against the Bucks where they could get hot from 3 at the start and then cool.
I saw a post on IG from Gilbert Arenas where he disagreed with the play in tournament for a number of reasons. While, as a fan, I personally love the play in from an entertainment standpoint, I did agree with a point he made about draft position. He basically said that if a seed that was higher has to switch out of playoff position due to the play-in then they should also switch draft position and lottery odds. Do you have any opinion on that?
- I'm pretty sure you do switch draft position as well. If the, say, the Wizards don't make the playoffs they are in the lottery. Feel free to disabuse me on that if I'm wrong. That's certainly the way it should be.
How much do you think DeRozen ( & his "Bizarro 3-and-D" game) will garner on the market? As a Spurs fan, I'd rather just throw money at Duncan Robinson.
- Yeah, me too. It's so hard to find a suitor for DeRozan at this point unless there's a bad team really looking to get to mediocre. Like he'd be a fit on Orlando just for the shot creation, but why do the Magic want to mess with a 31-year-old at this point? The Spurs almost "need" him more than any other team. However, they could probably do an offer sheet to Duncan Robinson and get DeRozan back. I think my guess on DDR is in the 55-$70m guaranteed range.
What do you think is Mikal Bridges' ceiling? Do you think he could make an all-defense team or maybe even get to an all-NBA level of player?
- Definitely think he could make All-defense, particularly as he gets that Trevor Ariza old man strength. He might even make it for me this year, I still haven't done my picks yet but he'll be a strong contender. I don't see him as having the on-ball skills to get to All-NBA. I see him possibly getting to that 25-50 level in the league though.
Nate, there's a big gap between it being a "reasonable possibility" that Zion wants out, and you saying fairly confidently on a recent pod that Zion wants out. In addition, you speculated during the bubble that Zion left because of legal reasons when there was no real basis for it. You talk much more definitively about Zion in cases like these than any other player, why is that?
- Legal reasons that he left the bubble? Nah I never said that or intimated it, not sure how you got that impression. I think I called it "strange" or something along those lines, which I think we can all agree it was. And I think "reasonable possibility" describes how I've put it about Zion being unhappy there. I'll put it this way: if you ask me whether he's happy there or unhappy there, I'd put my money on unhappy, and I think I've explained why that is.