Would the Rockem Sockem Robots Bucks-Celtics series be markedly different had Middleton been available?
- I'm not sure. The 4 Celtics wins were relatively comfortable by the end, although Game 4 featured quite the comeback. Bucks also had a Herculean comeback in Game 5. Before the series if Middleton were healthy I would have picked the Bucks in 6 (although as close as a series could be, just because road team more often wins in 6). But I don't think Middleton would have been particularly effective against any of the Celtics defenders in his iso game. I think his passing and ability to set up Giannis and Lopez a little more would have been important, as would simply not being Grayson Allen. I still think it would have been a really difficult series for the Bucks and that they would have been short depth-wise and with their defensive versatility with him, but they would have had the talent advantage. So I think it could have gone either way but probably Bucks?
Hi nate, we totaled all our picks for over unders this year. Thoughts?
At least this makes me feel better that this was a tough year. First year I've been below .500 since I started this in 2015-16 and first year I lost to Danny. Congrats to @abs0ul13 on a great performance.
Pat Connaughton in this series has made a couple 3 pointers in which he catches the ball and shoots without ever bringing it down. Is this something every spot up shooter will be doing in a couple years similar to how guys have learned to pump fake and relocate on the 3 point line in recent years
- The first guy I remember doing a ton of this was Morrow, and KD started learning it from him. Klay was also an early practicioner. I do think it's something that can be useful if you receive a high pass, particularly from the corners where you don't really need to get your legs into it as much. For guys who shoot a jump shot rather than a set shot it's not really possible but for the set shot guys it's great. I actually experimented with this when I was younger in pickup games (obviously any coach back in the 90s would have shot me on sight if I tried it in a real game or practice) as a big guy where I'd be near the elbows with ball over my head with that two-hand overhead pass setup with hands on either side of the ball and then would just pivot my hands and launch it from over my head without jumping. My completely accurate memory is I made about 75% of those.
If the Mavs win the title this year do you think teams skew even further away from large 5s? Or does the uniqueness of Luka prevent their model from being replicated.
- I'm sure a lot of teams would love to do this. How many teams can actually put the personnel together to get enough size on the ball to switch, enough help defense, enough rebounding, and also be good enough offensively as well with no huge defensive liabilities among small guards who need to be backed up by a big man? Unless you have a Tucker, a Kleber, a Draymond, a Horford or Grant Williams, or a ton of great wings like the Clippers, all of which are extremely hard to find, you can't play that way. So you need to have those big wings and centers, and ALSO have your main offensive players not be small turnstiles.
Draymond Green's ankle injury seems like a topic most people have missed. Since he sprained his ankle in the denver series he hasn't been nearly as mobile and has opted for fly bys and reach arounds instead of closing out to shooters. Chris Paul had the quad injury that wasn't discussed until game 7. Any other injuries heading into the conference finals you have noticed that haven't been reported, but might have a major impact on the out come?
- yeah, I don't think it's been discussed hardly at all because he didn't come out. Draymond always seems to play through those tweaks. I think one of the most important things for GSW was him looking better as a scorer and transition push guy against Memphis than he had previously.
Is the best approach for teams that had higher playoff expectations this postseason (Suns and Sixers specifically) to run it back with small tweaks to the same roster/coaching staff or is there a larger move that either might need to consider?
- Danny and I will likely discuss this far more this week on the pod, but Philly clearly needs massive upgrades on defense. They're probably stuck hoping Harden, Joel, and Maxey carry the offense but they need to find some tougher guys who can also shoot. Harris is such a poor fit, even with him having a reasonable postseason by his standards. For Phoenix, their team fit much better. They just had guys who had uncharacteristically (they hope) poor series like CP and Ayton. They're also young enough to get better. So it'd be great to figure out a way to play small and switch more, although their only great iso guy is Booker since you probably don't want 38 y/o Chris Paul doing that in next year's playoffs. We'll look at it more but I'm not sure there's an Ayton trade that makes them better next year, but they can surely explore it.
Congrats on becoming a parent - hope everything is going smoothly! Were the Suns comments regarding Ayton (mainly Monty) indicative of something greater behind the scenes, or is that reading the tea leaves too much and was just frustration after a rough loss?
- There were some unconfirmed reports of Ayton getting into it with Monty on the bench during the game. After we recorded last night I went back and rewatched 3rd and Ayton got pulled after a pathetic effort getting out to the corner on D when they started trying to trap, granted already down 40. And then Booker's less than tepid endorsement (the reporter who asked that question last night DM'd me to say that was in fact the purpose of the question to see if Booker would say he wanted him back) and finishing that answer with "you gotta be ready to play." Now, guards all love to blame big guys because they feel if they had that body they'd be so much better, and Booker was getting doubled and CP was getting switched and getting it to Ayton on quick seals was supposed to be the antidote to that, plus he had zero impact on D. So it seems like his attitude got worse, perhaps he was pissed at the org over the contract stuff considering everyone in the media was saying last playoffs he was a no-brained max (not me tho). But in the end, we just haven't seen ANY center who isn't a switch guy like Bam hold up well against a true 5-out team. Generally, one thing I've learned is that when there's smoke there's fire when it comes to internal dissent.
Watching the fourth quarter of Bucks-Cs it made me realize the stark difference between the two teams in complaining to officials AS they play is on going affecting their ability to get back on defense. Do you believe this is something that can be coached out of players? What (good) teams you think complain the least during play? Do you think there's enough hidden points here that it marginally affects the outcome of a series?
Bucks complain plenty, but they seem to do so at deadballs as opposed to as the game is on going
- Yeah it definitely drives me crazy when players do this. I think I've said this before, but I think complaining to the refs is much more performative for the people watching and one's own coaching staff than it is actually hoping to change the call or get an advantage with future calls. If you get your shot blocked or you turn it over, it's embarrassing and you feel the need to show everyone that you didn't actually just get beat on that play, but you got fouled and the ref didn't call it. (My absolute least favorite of these is the guy who didn't box out or jump for the rebound motioning for offensive goaltending.) But complaining to the refs and not getting back can cost your team a few buckets a game. You can only tell NBA stars so much, but if I were running a team I'd try to institute a policy of not complaining to the refs until there's a stoppage, and then doing so as respectfully as possible. You only piss them off by complaining to them as they're trying to continue to do their job during live play. To answer the last part, I do think the Bucks largely do a good job not complaining, although Middleton wasn't active and he's probably the worst of them. Warriors other than Draymond are pretty good at getting back without complaining. Luka, Tatum, Westbrook, and Harden are some of the worst about not getting back while complaining. Jokic has gotten better, I think Malone keeps working on him.
Hey Nate, saw someone who was a systems engineer talking about the Suns collapse today. He was talking about how some precision systems (especially in manufacturing) seem unbelievably consistent and efficient… but a minor problem can generate a cascading breakdown where everything stops working completely. He wondered if the Suns system was a little like that. Do you think that makes sense and would you agree we saw that some with 5 out and Ayton’s defense?
Is this one reason you and Danny prize versatility over elite sustained performance in the regular season when projecting the playoffs?
- I'm not sure I'd thought about it quite that way, but it's clear that the Suns are a precision team on both ends, and they were forced out of their comfort zone by the end. They usually were able to dictate the terms of engagement and seemed to have a counter to every type of defense they saw, but Dallas just did the little things so well that it messed them up. The Dallas defense is kind of the defensive version of the Suns offense, where they're just relentless and continue to execute and eventually Phoenix got frustrated at the lack of opening and mistakes to exploit. And I think you're right that in terms of versatility the Suns didn't have enough ways to play on both ends. And, let's not forget, they didn't have close to the best player in the series either.
With the lottery tomorrow night, what teams would you like to see jump up, whether to see who could utilize the talent the best or who would...let's say provide the most entertainment/content value down the line cough cough kings
- Haha, the lottery sneaks up on me every year since I'm so in the thick of the playoffs. I generally root for the good organizations to be rewarded in the lottery and the bad ones to not be, both for karma and because the bad ones will either mess up the players they get or fail to build around them well. I like seeing great teams and great players being relevant at the highest levels rather than a Minnesota/KG situation. Or I'd like to see great players playing together. So I'm probably rooting for Detroit due to Cade maybe more than anyone. Other than that though, I don't think any of these orgs are terrible other than SAC. ORL isn't great either, but they have some intriguing pieces if they add a star. So I can't think of any teams that I'd be totally against other than Sac.
By consensus, the most valuable offensive archetype in the modern NBA is a big wing creator (Lebron, Luka, Kawhi, etc.)
What is the most valuable defensive archetype?
FWIW, my answer is: a mobile rim protecting 4/small ball 5 (Draymond, Giannis, AD, Mobley, JJJ, etc.)
These guys unlock a huge amount of defensive versatility. You can play them at 4 next to another rim protector, and we've seen that be the core of a lot of successful regular season defenses (Brook/Giannis Bucks, Dwight/AD Lakers, Allen/Mobley Cavs, early Bogut/Draymond Warriors fit this mold, among others).
And then in the playoffs, you have the option to go small with this guy at center, which allows you to get more offense and switchability without sacrificing too much rim protection. Bucks, Lakers, Warriors, and Heat all did this and won the finals.
- Regular season, Gobert. Postseason, it's clearly the type of player you're talking about, who can switch and also protect the rim and also guard the post as well. Bam, Draymond, AD, Mobley type.
Sabonis is Sac's rep if it makes you want them to win [the lottery] any less
- I have no problem with Sabonis himself. Great guy by all accounts. My issue is with those who added up his points/rebounds/assists and thought he was an All-Star.
WATFO Embiid asks to be traded before the beginning of the 2023-24 season
- I'll say 10%. He seems to have such a connection with Philly, and seems synonymous with them and that fanbase in a way that a lot of stars, including say James Harden, haven't. Plus, international players have largely been more loyal to their initial team and he seems to have a similar mentality to Giannis of just wanting to push through.
What have been some of your favorite "pod moments"? Thinking of ones like doing coach rankings discussing kidd and then news comes out he's fired
- yeah, that was an all-timer for sure. I think the 73 and 60 pod on the last night of the '16 season was incredible. We stayed up until like 4:30 recording that one, getting a bunch of audio and stuff. That felt like such an incredibly special moment. Driving all night to Utah for the 2016 summer league and Danny waking me up in my hotel room the next morning with news KD signed with Golden State and putting that together on like 3 hours of sleep. The pod after the 2019 Finals where it just felt like a huge change. The basketball therapy pod when everything stopped due to COVID. The pod where I said the bubble would be fine and wasn't the most dangerous thing in the history of humanity when a bunch of people were going apeshit about it on Twitter, but most importantly the first day of Dunc'd On Prime when the response was overwhelming and I knew just based on that one day that we'd made the right decision, and being touched that so many people were willing to support our work directly.
what do you think is the best coached series of the conference QF, not the best coaches but the best coaching performance, I say Suns-Mavs, Kidd has been great and its not Monty's fault the State Farm switched CP3 to Cliff Paul in game 3 and beyond.
- Yeah, Monty was in a tough place. He tried all the adjustments that I was able to come up with, except maybe setting screens higher out on the floor. But 5-out and switchable is just so hard to deal with, it simplifies the game and makes it about personnel. I guess they could have maybe gone full Bucks and protected the rim, but they needed to just beat them on offense because you aren't shutting down Luka and 5 out completely and they couldn't do that. I definitely wouldn't say Warriors/Grizz. Bucks/Celtics I think there were a lot of adjustments made and schematically they tried everything, but Bud's player usage could have been a little better. So yeah, Suns/Mavs definitely best coached series.
Hi Nate hope you are doing well. In soccer particularly in Europe, teams will have youngsters playing at 18 or 19 but they usually are not really expected to start being a dependable starter until they turn 23 or 24. sometimes it happens before but most times all you see is potential until they reach that age after development and experience. thus, my question is are teams/fans/media too impatient with younger prospects and in your opinion at what point should the average lottery pick be ready to be a dependable starter on a good team?
- Yeah I think in a guy's first two years you want to see at least flashes of something good, a high rate of improvement, a skill that can be a plus, etc. That's even if they're drafted at 19--if they're drafted older you definitely want to see it. It's the very rare player that shows you nothing at all early and becomes good. Even Jordan Poole who was awful early on had shown himself by the end of his 2nd year. Jarrett Culver or Josh Jackson, it was clear they weren't going to get there.
Piggybacking off your tweet about Dallas at +235 to win WCF, can you recall a line that seemed more out of wack with your expectations? (Just for fun, that line implies that GS is 70% likely to win the series!)
- Unfortunately I rarely look at these to have enough of a memory. Another one I told a friend to bet was when Miami was +700 to win the East over the winter, but don't have many of those.
If the Warriors or Mavs win the title this year they would be the worst team to win it since ___? Fill in the blank!
- I think if either wins the title, we'll think better of them. Steph, Draymond, and Klay will have played great, and when Warriors were healthy they dominated in the regular season. Luka will be on his way to being an all-timer. Sometimes you also can't decide that until you see what the group does the next year as well. But 2020 Lakers and 2021 Bucks had very easy paths. Before that, probably 2011 Mavs or 2006 Heat.
How many minutes per game do you think the warriors will play the 3 guard lineup?
- Hmpf, this is very interesting. I think they may have to just lean into outscoring Dallas. Also, they just don't have many other good players to avoid playing it that much. I think it'll be 10 mpg, but could see it going a lot higher depending on how series goes.