When you and Danny discuss shooting luck is that just in regards to a teams average (i.e. Suns opponent 3pt fg% is 33%) or is that an advanced metric that takes into account things like close 3s contested, location of 3s or good close out decisions (i.e. the suns letting THT and IT go 0-14 seems more like knowing your opponent as opposed to luck)
- Generally it's based on just their percentage from certain areas, although we try to work in percentage on wide open 3s when we can. There are more advanced metrics using shooter and closest defender from Second Spectrum that we'll look at occasionally and other writers and teams have access to more regularly. Many have fought back against the idea of opponent shooting luck as "great closeouts" or "leaving the right guys open" but generally this "skill" does not endure for a team from year to year. For example, the Celtics, Bucks, and Warriors were teams in recent vintage people made this argument about, the Celtics it was great closeouts, the Warriors it was forcing them to play late in the clock due to switching, the Bucks it was allowing pick and pop 3s to big men more. All of those experienced regression at some point. Smarter people than me, e.g. Seth Partnow and Kevin Pelton, have looked at this over the years. If there is a component of better defense consistently forcing worse shooting, it's subsumed by the natural variation of 3-point shooting.
You mentioned on Twitter you want to see Eric Gordon on a good team. What do you think about his fit on the Hawks, along the lines of the Derrick White trade Hollinger proposed? What do you think the price would be to trade for him alongside matching salary -- Hawks would probably prefer to include Gallinari in that deal.
- I think a Gordon deal might be able to glean a first if it included a player with bad salary for next year as well. I think teams are too squeamish of $20.9m guaranteed in his age 34 season, although as I said on the pod last night I think teams might be too squeamish of that given how much he'd help this year. I think he's better than a lot of these $20m a year shooting guards. However, would Gordon really be that much of an upgrade on Bogdan or Huerter? I think if I'm the Hawks they need to not panic, and not make a trade for a veteran to get better this year unless the price is super cheap. If there's a deal out there for a long-term starter on the wing who can defend then maybe you make that.
Kings fan here. It seems like while Fox isn’t likely to be traded, but he’s at least on the table in the right deal. So here’s my question… Could you rank these four players in terms of who YOU think is generally most valuable and also tell me if a kings-centric perspective would change those rankings? Fox, Simmons, Sabonis, Siakam.
- I would still put Fox at the top of that list, even with his defensive issues this year. He's the youngest and plays the hardest to fill position of primary ball handler. Simmons vs Siakam is pretty close I'd say, Siakam's recent play has been encouraging but would like to see him keep it up. Sabonis would be last just due to the fit issues, and I think that's why I'd put Siakam a tad above Simmons. That's not considering the contract aspects--Sabonis making less does help make him a little more attractive.
Unique question. How many teams front offices would be improved if they replaced their current decision makers with Nate and Danny
- I think we kinda got into this last chat--I think a few but not many due to our inexperience and lack of relationships. I think more teams could be improved with one of us in a secondary role where we still had influence to help avoid making the more egregious mistakes.
WATFO that the Ben Simmons is still a Sixers at the trade deadline? And also just curious if this is more or less likely in your mind WATFO that the Timberwolves trade for Ben Simmons?
Follow up also for the wolves, if Simmons is off the table to the Wolves have anything worth offering that could realistically get them Myles Turner?
- So I predicted 30% chance Simmons is traded at deadline, Danny had 42%, and Hollinger had 70% when we talked yesterday. Not much has changed, other than Sixers and Embiid specifically playing a little better now. So maybe I'd bump those odds up to 35% due to increased win-now pressure. But there really doesn't seem like the trade out there for what Daryl wants. I'm not sure why the offers would improve a ton at the deadline, and he seems adamant to hold out. I don't see him admitting defeat by taking the package that Simmons seems like he's actually worth. Traded to Wolves specifically? Maybe 20% chance that if he's traded it's to Wolves I'd guess.
Hi Nate,
A couple dudes from this discord were saying you'd look good with a beard and they made me make this
hahahaha. I'm pretty sure I'm incapable of growing that. I only have to shave once a week. I had a shorter beard like 8 years ago. My wife saw a picture and was.........not enthused. So, sadly, it will have to remain in the realm of Discord fantasy, despite owning a couple of flannel shirts.
What would be your best resources for learning more about the specifics of the actual plays being run, probably the hardest part to learn about coming from a country where no one grew up playing the sport, it's all assumed knowledge.
- watch the #NBACast. Half Court Hoops youtube channel is great. I mentioned on a previous pod NBA Coaches Playbook with sections by a bunch of NBA coaches from the late 2000s. There are also many many resources for learning how to coach basketball out there, as well as many online coaches' clinics as well. A Google search for those will get you started.
ben falk of cleaning the glass has an Xs and Os site as well: https://www.learn-basketball.com/courses/xsandos
- Good call. And in fact, Coach Pyper from Half Court Hoops is involved with that.
Ignoring financial/logistical/intangible realities, what number of NBA teams would lead to the best average in-game product?
- As you'd probably guessed, I think it's more about avg games than number of teams, so that teams will feel like they can try their hardest to win every game. 2 games a week would be ideal to me. But in terms of number of teams, I do think there's enough talent for 30 teams right now. I think you could safely lop off maybe 5 teams though--an interesting exercise would be to think of how many guys on the 5 worst teams in the league would make the rotation for the 16 playoff teams. It's usually like 2-3 per team.
nate caption these
A) Can't believe Indy fans are this pissed about Sabonis B) My burrito just arrived C) Pattern recognition. Oh, I should mention for those who are interested, that the first episode of the Arguing About Food podcast with my sister Olivia is in the can and hopefully posting today on what used to be the COVID Daily News feed. First episode: Top Five Objectively Best Foods
Who would have to add picks to:
Fox, Barnes for
Simmons, Harris
- I would say Philly, particularly due to that Harris contract. I also like Fox more than Simmons--it may be at the point where Fox is a little underrated now due to a slow start this year and just general Kings malaise.
So back when you did a warriors gamecast the differences in kerr’s coaching methods with wiseman and Kuminga came up, and Kuminga mentioned in that Toronto post game how he gets pulled when he does something dumb. And sure enough during the game’s extended garbage time during the end of the 3rd and 4th, Kerr pulled Kuminga twice after he did something dumb only to sub him back in shortly after. Thought you might get a kick out of seeing that
- It will shock you to know I didn't watch this game in full, although I did catch up on Kuminga's game on Synergy later. But this has become a relatively common coaching technique for young players. Ideally you're not straight up benching them for the rest of the game, but to pull them out, talk, and put them back in. Kerr will even do that with Steph sometimes when he's in a massive turnover funk, just to kinda break the cycle.
If Myles Turners price is too high, what is a likely price that the Blazers should pay for Christian Wood or would he even be an upgrade on Nurk at all? Also what are your thoughts on Nassir Little going forward!
- He'd certainly be an upgrade on Nurk on O. Nurk's finishing has grown beyond frustrating and he's not an oop threat. But Nurk is way better on defense. However, as I talked about pretty extensively with both Danny on Tuesday and John on Wednesday, I'm not sure the Blazers should be trying to upgrade incrementally at this point. Also, seems like Dame might be headed the surgery route in which case it's strip everything down except him you'd think and try for a high lottery pick.
listening to your awards / rankings pods, I get the feeling you and danny are vastly overrating minutes as a tiebreaker. i started having this thought during last years MVP race about mid season, in that you kept giving the tiebreaker between embiid and jokic to jokic because of the minutes played distinction. obviously this didn't end up mattering due to embiid's injury, but I thought you were way overrating the number of minutes jokic played due to the fact that philly was at the top of the conference, blowing teams out almost every night, leading to embiid playing 7-8 minutes less per game than jokic (over the course of half a season this equates to several games "more" played), and I feel like you may be negging players who play on better teams bc they're blowing other teams out relative to other players playing on worse teams. So my question is whether you've investigated a garbage time metric for minutes played that would normalize these things less injury, so that players who play less time on better teams don't' lose tiebreakers just bc their team is better. this would really look like a reverse garbage time filter in that you give players who have less non garbage time more minutes per game when accounting for the tiebreaker
- Yeah I don't think that's really a fair criticism. Generally if the guy has played the same number of games that's what's more important to me. For example, Giannis was our MVP in both 19 and 20 and didn't play very many MPG. The intention is when the players are truly at the same level of performance, the mins is a tiebreaker. And I'm not using it as a tiebreaker when it's 10% more mins. When it's 20% or more, then I think it's fair and is always the result of the player in question having missed a significant number of games, e.g. Jimmy Butler so far this year.
Am I crazy for thinking Turner and Bam would be a delightful front court pairing with Bams ability to guard on the perimeter and Turners clean up ability? And is there anyway Miami could get that deal done with some combination of the spare parts they have around Lowry Butler Bam and Herro?
- I don't think it would be an optimal use of resources to pair them. Bam's value is his ability to spearhead a switching defense or a zone, but if you've got Turner you're probably playing a drop coverage. You could do some cool things there, but I think whichever team had one and was trying to pair them with the other could find a better fit with the resources needed to acquire him.
Who would fit better in the modern nba: erick dampier or adonal foyle?
- Probably Dampier, the Golden State version. He could at least get some orebs and finish around the rim. Foyle was completely powerless offensively and you can't really play those guys today, despite his excellent shot blocking.
which players would you be most upset at making a bullshit injury replacement all star appearance this year? comparable to guys like sabonis drummond dlo in years past
- Sabonis? haha. Just because 3-time All-Star shouldn't be next to his name. Among others, Andrew Wiggins would not be a good choice despite his very solid play this year. And Fred Van Vleet, who I love as a player, should be disqualified just due to the Raps broadcast referring to him as "Freddy All-Star." It's one thing to call him that after he's already made the team, although it's still small market small time stuff. To do it as part of a campaign is ridiculous, deserving or not. Come on Toronto, you're the 4th largest metro area in North America, you just won a championship, you're the best organization in the NBA maybe. Fucking act like it. Seriously, I had to stop watching Synergy clips of Van Vleet because they had the Raps feed and they kept calling him this. It's maybe the most annoying behavior I can ever remember from a local announcer. And that's saying something.
Disheartened blazer fan here…been trying to find solace in the trade machine. Is there a framework for a three team trade that would benefit each team between the blazers, sizers, and pacers? Basically, Ben Simmons and Myles Turner to the Blazers, Covington and Nurkic expiring contracts to Indiana, CJ McCollum, Anferne Simons and Torey Craig to Sixers. Blazers would also have to send out at least one first round pick. Who is most likely to hang up in that call? Would Dame, Powell, Simmons, Little and Turner not be a great fit and an ideal lineup for Simmons’ talents?
- I'm sorry, I think the Blazers getting the 2 most valuable guys in the trade and only sending out 1 first, or even 2 frankly, isn't realistic. I'm not sure why the Sixers want McCollum at this point, John and I talked about that yesterday about whether he's really that much of an upgrade on Maxey given the latter's youth and cheap contract. And the Pacers pairing Nurkic and Sabonis doesn't make much sense, and I think there are better ways to just trade Turner for an expiring with more of a return than that.
Hey Nate, happy New Year! Was hoping to get this question through on the H&D twitter spaces as I'd love to hear Hollinger's take as well (and how this conversation may go in a front office) but I got caught up at work.
- Assuming Kyrie situation is same heading into playoffs as it is now - if you were running the Bucks would you rather play the Nets with home court advantage and have Kyrie be eligible for 4 games or play the Nets w/o home court advantage but only 3 potential Kyrie games?
Secondly, is your preference strong enough that that's what you would try to be optimizing for in the last week of the regular season (assuming those two teams are fighting for 1/2 or 2/3 seeds) or would that be lower priority as compared to easier early round matchups?
- I think I'd rather have easier early round matchups and also make sure to avoid the Nets until the conference finals. I think you're playing with fire to manipulate anything based on what Kyrie may or may not do--he could just end up getting the shot and then you lost home court for no reason.
Have you done your Mason Plumlee punishment yet?
- I think we're saving that for March when we're in a point of the season where there's less natural content.
If the Lakers theoretically just told Russ to go away ala John Wall, how much better or worse do you think they are at full strength?
- I have a certain writer friend who has been making the argument that simply waiving Russ (or not having him on the team) would make the Lakers better. I think right now with AD out that's not the case, but I think we could get there, perhaps more due to Russ' defense than anything. It is worth noting that this awesome LeBron stretch has featured him playing center and rolling to the rim a lot more, and Russ has been setting him up a lot so he deserves some credit there. They also have absolutely nobody to replace him. Maybe when Nunn comes back it might be true they'd be better without him. I'd like to at least see him replaced on crucial defensive possessions where he's going to just lose guys or make ridiculous gambles. However, due to his massive contract, they don't really have the depth to withstand him being gone.
If you swapped Draymond Green for Rudy Gobert, how would you expect each team to fare (in terms of championship equity)
- I think they'd both be significantly worse, more so the Jazz than the Warriors. The warriors could run more PnR, and I think they could reorient their defense to be as good during the regular season, although probably less versatile in the playoffs. Draymond would just have WAY too many holes to fill with the Jazz, a la the Warriors in the 19-20 season.
If you had to do a top 10 players off the top of your head, is lebron currently top 5?
- oof. Yeah, I think he probably would be in terms of how he's playing at this very moment. KD, Steph, Giannis are the only ones clearly above him to me.
Have you guys considered looking at other all in one metrics in addition to (or instead of) EPM and RAPTOR? A survey of NBA execs had DARKO DPM, EPM, and BBall Index's LEBRON as the 3 most trusted all in one stats. And those are the 3 I tend to look at most as well. RAPTOR was very polarizing among execs, and anecdotally it more frequently has results that just don't pass the sniff test. For example, as of today it has Jokic as the highest rated defender in the league. Source: https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/
- I read that article and it was a good one. I'm just not familiar with the developers of LeBron and haven't personally heard anything great about it. (that's me being nice) I like that Raptor breaks down into both on/off and box score/tracking data. I'll also note that we generally use these more for offense than for defense, as they have more data for offense and therefore I consider them more reliable. You'll recall we totally dismissed that Jokic number in Raptor. And I have a pretty good understanding of the strengths and weakness of Raptor and how to compensate. The one that actually is available now that I missed is RAPM and luck-adjusted RAPM from nbashotcharts.com. I find the latter particularly useful with the demise of PIPM.
Luka Doncic has had a disappointing, injury-marred year. What improvements (statistical or otherwise) do you expect that Luka would need to make by the end of the year in order to receive consideration for one of your all NBA teams? If his production doesn't get meaningfully better, would it affect your long term outlook for him as a prospect?
- I think it would affect the long-term outlook a little, but if he came back in great shape to start next year or had a great playoffs it would counteract that. He'd need to get his TS at or above league avg and also play enough games/mins to be competitive. And the Mavs would have to continue their defensive improvement with him out there. But I still think he's generally a cut above the Mitchell/Booker/LaVine types due to his passing, so if he gets anywhere close to his normal season and mins he'd have a leg up on them.