Hi Danny! My question is do you think teams should be able to have the bird rights of former players? For example, LeBron being able to sign with the Cavs as a free agent and the Cavs not having to worry about the cap space. I got the idea from European soccer and the homegrown status of players sticking to them throughout their careers and I wondered if it could work in the NBA.
- It is definitely an interesting idea but I worry about how that system could be gamed down the line and it is made even more complicated since currently Bird rights are transferred from team to team in different circumstances, so the whole structure would have to change. The history of the CBA is littered with unintended consequences and it feels like that would have a bunch of them but it would be fascinating.
I feel like there's this possibility out there that no one is talking about: what happens if the Lakers are 10-15 games under .500 heading into the trade deadline? With a pick and a swap still owed to NO, what options do they really have? Could/would they try to rebuild?
- To me, the bigger question there is what have they heard from LeBron to that juncture? If LBJ says he is not coming back, you listen to him about keep or trade but likely try to open up cap space for 2023, presumably by just keeping their expirings around. That also opens up some wild possibilities for later as the Pelicans have the choice of EITHER the LAL 2024 or 2025 pick and they will know the # of the 2024 selection before deciding
What do you make of Memphis seemingly not improving the roster this summer? With Anderson and Melton gone, their rotation spots appear to be filled by the likes of Konchar and rookies. Not typical for a top 2 seed to willingly do something like this for non-tax reasons
- Deeply disappointed. I wrote during the playoffs that the Grizzlies were the "sleeping giant" of the 2022 offseason because of their combination of draft picks and cap space. Well, that giant is still asleep I guess. Part of that is the best trade targets potentially not being available (i.e. quality forwards) but it seems like they are too confident that guys like Brooks can work in the cauldron of the last two playoff rounds. I am.... less confident.
Between Tyler Herro and RJ Barrett, who would you be more comfortable giving a lucrative extension to?
- I would go Barrett, though I am not the biggest fan of giving either a huge deal right now. The difference is that Herro does not have enough juice to be the lead creator on a high end offense right now (though he has a nice game as a secondary) so his defensive limitations matter more. Fred Katz and I talked about this a bit but Barrett's skills fit well for a complementary guy right now and he has improved over the last few years. That plus better defense is enough to give him the edge.
Have there been any GMs/FOs that you've had any big opinion changes on this last season? I feel like several teams like the Spurs and Pacers have finally given their FOs the leeway to show completely different sets of skills than they had before and others like Dallas, Suns, and Denver have finally hit some of their pressure points.
- Tim Connelly / Wolves is the biggest for me. I think people are underestimating the chance that Minnesota's bet really works in the regular season but they gave up a TON for a 30-year old big man who has already taken a step back defensively from his peak who is also not on a below-market contract. It could work but both the evaluation and the price given up was a big surprise for me. Teams like the Spurs finally tearing it down was encouraging but they got a strong offer from the Hawks so it was both reasonable but also not expectation-shattering.
Now that summer league has finished, are there any teams outlooks for this season that you are brighter on compared to before. I know summer league is not predictive in almost all circumstances. Related, are there any players you are totally out on now because of something you saw (or didn’t see) displayed in summer league
- None that fundamentally changed my outlook for the 2022-23 season. Remember that rookies and even most sophomores (especially the ones who play in Summer League) are truly positive players for the coming season so even the guys I liked, and there were plenty, are not going to be the engines for those teams. In terms of players who did not impress, I will save that for the Summer League evaluation pods, the first of which will come out later today! I will say that generally speaking, I am pleased with this class. Not gushing about superstar ceilings but more prospects than I expected looked like long-term starters and that is a great sign this early.
Why is Terrence Ross’ value unable to get the Magic a late first round pick from a title/playoff contender? They have tried at least year’s deadline and this year’s draft to extract any 1st round value to no avail.
- Is Terrence Ross a clear positive value at over $11 million? Ross has not been over 55% TS since 2018-19 (negative O-EPM every seasons since 16-17!) and has been a below-average defender his entire career. Why would someone give up a first for him unless they were offloading negative salary in the deal? The Blazers traded Norm Powell and Robert Covington for a recent first (Keon Johnson), Winslow and a 2025 second. That was on the low end of the scale given their other priorities but giving up a first for a 31-year old who is not starting or closing games for you is not a great idea. Magic held on to Ross for too long.
With this news and seeing what Lacob and Ballmer have done, could we see a new trend of owners financing their own stadiums?
- I hope so! As a California kid, I have always seen public stadium financing as a scam (for the citizens) and giveaway to billionaires so self-funding is awesome.
Danny, Troy Weaver is a fascinating test case in that he seems to bring his AAU background into team building (overpaying, trading guys where they want to go, bringing in his guys) along with good scouting from OKC days….how do you assess using this AAU approach in building a culture vs always striving for value?
- As always, those elements are far less important than the nuts and bolts of talent evaluation. Players and agents do appreciate when a GM treats them well but you very, very rarely see a free agent or trade target choose his next team because of it. As such, drafting and signing the right players will set the table and Weaver has done a pretty good job there, assuming Cade hits (and I think he will).
If you’re the warriors development staff how disappointed are you in the SL? PBJ didnt even play? Wiseman and Kuminga werent dominant. Seems like a big mess to me
- Baldwin Jr and Rollins were both hurt and thus could not play in Summer League- that is not anyone's fault. Kuminga was a modest disappointment but should not be a lead creator (and exploring your skillset is good even if it looks bad at the time) so it's not like it made me terrified that he will suck in a smaller role on the full squad. Wiseman was rusty but showed some tools on both ends and Moody did very well so I do not share your gloom and doom.
If you were starting an expansion franchise and you were given the option to pick the top 3 picks in any of the past 5 drafts (2018-2022) which trio would you pick and why? This is considering which players are easiest to build around, injuries, and future development, but not things like current contract or current age.
- 1. Luka 2. Ja 3. Cade. If Zion did not have his injury history, he makes that list but he does so that's the way it is. To me, the primary focus is ceiling: who can be the best player on an elite team now or moving forward? There are absolutely guys that have a higher floor (and arguably EV) than Ja or Cade due to injuries and Cade's rookie year but being able to lead an NBA offense is so damn important and I love that two of the three have good positional size. Mobley and Edwards have definitely worked their way into the conversation (Jalen Green can too!) but you all should know by now what I value most.
Is there a sense of what the value of an open shot is? We've transitioned into this idea that 3 is more than 2, but some teams treat open shots as being the best. Is that the next evolution of offense? I.e., an attempt to excise contested/semi contested 3's for open mid-long range 2's? Do the numbers bare anything out on this?
- I am sure people smarter than yours truly have done a good job with that. In the process of reading Seth's book (excellent, by the way) and I believe there is a rough approximation in there somewhere.
So me and my friend did a fun thing where we each controlled 1 team and pretended like the league had a fantasy draft. We both drafted with the goal of having the most successful 3 year stretch with whatever team we built. I was wondering whose team you liked better based off our parameters.
——-MY TEAM:——-
Guards:
Darius Garland
Ricky Rubio
Alex Caruso
Ish Smith
Wings:
Franz Wagner
Cam Johnson
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Kyle Anderson
Robert Covington
Duncan Robinson
Reggie Bullock
Bigs:
Bam Adebayo
Nic Claxton
——- His Team——-
Guards:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Monte Morris
Gary Payton II
Wings:
Saddiq Bey
Gary Trent Jr.
Keegan Murray
Nic Batum
PJ Tucker
KCP
Cody Martin
Bigs:
Evan Mobley
Maxi Kleber
Richaun Holmes
Mike Muscala
- That's fun! Close call but I think I like yours better within the parameters because it will be easier to build an above-average offense and that is so key to consistent success over a three-year window. That said, an SGA/Mobley PNR with credible spacing around it would be a whole lot of fun.
On the latest top 10 players stock up/down, it seemed to me you dinged Embiid (stock down) due to his 2nd round performance yet kept Kawhi “stock even” due to not seeing him in playoffs yet.
While I understand the argument that Kawhi has showed a top tier performance in his 18-19 raptors run and against the mavs in 20-21, he hasn’t been healthy in the last two playoffs. Embiid has had some injury problems but they seem more bad luck than chronic; Embiid also had a very good performance against the raps. Did Embiid get dinged just due to “not highest level showing yet” compared to kawhi?
- They are different kinds of injuries. 2022 was another reminder that Embiid has a propensity for picking up injuries that limit him even if a vast majority of them are primarily bad luck. While Embiid is still looking for that trademark playoff performance (and he was great in the Raptors series this year, to be clear), Kawhi has no such need as he is a known, established postseason force. Make sense?
With the lull in the NBA are you finding yourself with more free time? How is this offseason treating you?
- It has not really felt like a lull to me just yet. The stretch from the end of the Finals to the Draft and FA is always a sprint for us and it goes straight into Summer League. That is a part of why I always try to travel in September and late August, beyond the fact that travel is usually cheaper then since kids are back in school.