Of the three worst teams from last season (Houston, Detroit, Orlando) who is the closest to returning to the playoffs and how far out do you expect that to occur?
- The general way I look at this is which team has a path to being above-average on one end of the floor and top-20 on the other. Cade is by far my favorite creator of the group, which lends itself to Detroit being the pick, though I do worry about their defense for the time being. I'll go with the Pistons for another key reason: odds are the way Troy Weaver uses their cap space this offseason makes them better both now and in the years they are more playoff viable (I think that starts in 23-24 depending on how the upcoming season goes).
Hey Danny - do you think the Blazers end up using the Bledsoe contract? Personally was in favor of a Hayward + lotto pick for Winslow/Bledsoe deal but guess that didn't happen
- I do not- probably just waive (or waive-and-stretch) because the roughly $40m in wiggle room they have under the tax will mostly go to Simons and Nurkic, plus I do not expect a team that may be up for sale to go into the tax. Using the McCollum TE made more sense and Cronin made good use of it
Any tips for a first time summer league attendee? Not so much asking for Vegas tips, but more so the event itself. Which gym is your favorite to attend, etc.
- Yes! Develop a battle plan for the days you are there. It does not need to be an all-day thing but the two general tracks are getting better seats in one arena and planning to stick there for a while or being closer to the exit and bouncing between the two gyms. It will probably be easier to get seats in Thomas & Mack now than it was a few years ago when the Lakers had top prospects (T&M would fill up!) but Summer League has also continued to become a bigger deal in non-pandemic years so TBD. My preference between the two is typically to focus on Thomas and Mack because it gets the better teams/prospects that I'd want to be sure to see but plenty of people bounce between to get a rough sense of more players.
What should and what will be Gobert's trade value? Do you even see him being moved this off-season?
- Gobert has four years and $167.7 million left on his contract heading into his age-30 season. To me, that is a negative-value contract overall but that is more about him aging out of that level of play/pay than being below it now- after all, he was an extremely impactful defender last season. The good news for the Jazz is the last few seasons have indicated that teams are generally willing to stomach painful future years of contracts if the player is really good now (or believed to be really good- hi Russ!) so the asset return for Gobert is likely much higher than I would give out. One other concern: Gobert's extremely limited offensive game gives him less to fall back on if he continues to decline defensively so the slide could be more extreme despite his physical gifts.
Hey Danny, I'd love it if you guys used more of late May, early June to cover the draft, in lieu of the offseason preview pods.
I don't get a lot out of the latter, as most of the info (cap space, available FAs, extensions due) is easy to find, but your draft coverage- as full time NBA guys who aren't overloaded with background info and anecdotes and 5 years of priors- I think is really unique in the NBA media landscape.
Just wanted to give you that feedback, I don't know what the consensus is among your listeners but at least one of us would love like 15-20 full scouting reports on the 1st round prospects.
Oh one other thing, did Embiid finally have a good series against a good team this playoffs, or is he still chasing that dragon?
- First off, thank you. The challenge with doing more is simply bandwidth- there are only so many hours in the day and doing our draft scouts takes a bunch of time. As many of you know, I got started with RealGM as a draft analyst so it is something near and dear to my heart, but devoting additional hours to it has to come from somewhere and the first round-plus of the playoffs are brutal as-is. (very little flexibility during the end of the regular season either). On the Embiid front, 26 points and 11 rebounds per game on 62% TS in the Raptors series was very impressive, especially since he was dealing with injuries. I was not beating the "Embiid has never had a dominant series" drum like my podcast partner beforehand but I would say the Toronto series qualifies, particularly since I picked against Philly.
Hey Danny, if you haven't already, you need to try Deli board
- Do not worry- I have been to Deli Board many times. The Carzle is an absolute triumph but many of their other sandwiches I have tried are quite good too. Another SF sandwich recommendation is Turner's Kitchen closer to Dolores, which I originally heard about from someone on Discord (maybe you- I cannot remember). Since we are on the topic, the best sandwich I have ever had in my life was at Graham Avenue Meats and Deli in Williamsburg Brooklyn but unfortunately it closed years ago. The first time I went, the person behind the counter was singing to the meat as he cut it.
Two timeline Kerr plan: what would you think about a soft minute cap on the core three at 30 mpg to make sure the young guys get run?
- It is an interesting idea and my instinct is to run the concept a little differently: full regular season work load in games the team wants to prioritize but then either more days off or fewer minutes in cough less competitive games. One thing players have said over the years is that nights all the way off make more of a difference to them than playing fewer minutes in a game but of course that is a much steeper logistical challenge for teams, especially since Curry is so essential to the offense and Draymond the defense.
hey danny, last night really did seem to have the most specific focus and allotment of capital on wing size players throughout the draft (i. e. peyton watson, max christie both in the early thirties after being ineffective college players). do you think this was a sign that teams really are looking at the celtics to emulate? and secondly, do you think we could see this trend continue with some surprising contracts to similar sized players in this free agency period?
- The Celtics are far from the first team to load up on wing-sized players but their success potentially inspired some front offices to go that path more aggressively. Sam Vecenie and I have talked about it a lot over the years on RealGM Radio but the combination of wing scarcity and utility means I would be taking A LOT more swings at that in the draft and offseason more broadly once the players with elite potential are off the board. One other note: I cannot speak to Watson or Christie specifically but it is important to remember that a player's college resumé and pro projection can be very different, so that could be about more factors than just position.
for the players you don't do a full scouting report on, what process do you use to get a pre-draft opinion on them? is it mostly reading/watching/listening to other draftniks, personal mini-scouts, ....?
- That is actually a difference that Nate and I have in approach. He likes to have a rough idea of what the next couple of groups of prospects can do pre-draft while I follow the exact same pattern as the guys we scout: read as little as possible and form my own opinion, this time in Summer League and training camp. It leads to some fun revelations like Bam Adebayo but also the cold realization that some prospects just are not that good.
Hi Danny, where would you have put the Jazz championship odds in recent seasons (maybe not this year because of chemistry/Conley aging) if Royce O’Neal had been a better version of what he’s supposed to be. What if he was an OG or Mikal Bridges? Or (moving down your sf rankings) DFS or 2021 Danny Green? Trying to get an idea of how good the supporting talent has to be for this team construction of mostly bad defenders with Rudy as the best player to be a top tier contender
- I had them pretty low, definitely well below their regular season level of play. Utah never had enough perimeter defenders for me to be confident they could stop elite talent in four consecutive series and their offense had specific flaws (i.e. how bad they were at attacking switches on high-level defenses) that made them far from undeniable on that end too. A better Royce O'Neale would have helped but unless we are talking about him as elite or damn close to it, his improvement is not enough to transform their chances considering the other defenders in Utah's rotation. I am genuinely unsure how great an offense would need to be for me to give a team with two (or more!) limited defenders in their starting or closing five a strong chance of winning the title.
Hey Danny it seems like the new Wolves regime is pretty set on trying to play KAT at the 4. We saw a lot of success this past year with 2 big lineups but my concern is that two bigs is not optimal when your floor spacing big is also the big you want to run offense through nor do I think it’s optimal for Ant. Do you think the defensive improvement that will hopefully come from having vastly improved rim protection offsets that or do you share my concern?
- To me, it is a totally logical way to raise Minnesota's floor while also lowering their ceiling somewhat. Assuming that center cannot reliably space the floor, it hurts the offense as Ant, KAT and the others have limited driving space and you want Towns in the primary actions so that center is not going to be doing a whole heck of a lot offensively. Still, their offensive talent is high enough that they should be good (116.7 OffRtg with Edwards and Towns on the floor) that even an OK defense puts them in the playoff mix and pushing above the middle makes them more intriguing.
Danny, how much do you index on one season of data in the NBA? For example, would a josh giddey or kuminga move over suggs for you if you were a GM redrafting?
- It is far more about the play than the stats, though obviously both matter. Even though he had a ton of injury problems, I am much less confident that Suggs will be a dynamic offensive player so that lowers his stock and yeah, I'd move him down my 2021 draft power rankings. Not going to do a full one because that takes a ton more thought.
Hey Danny, hope you're having a decent day. I'm feeling pretty depressed about the Cavs' draft last night, and was curious what you made of their decision to pass on AJ Griffin (and Tari Eason) at 14 last night. (Not sure if you've seen any Agbaji film.) Thanks!
- Did not watch any Agbaji so hard to judge. I am positive on AJ Griffin and only saw Eason in the context of a Jabari Smith game so I'll need to withhold judgement for a little while longer.
Danny did you watch The Staircase and if so is Michael Petersen innocent
- Have not watched it.
Next year we need nate and danny on playback with a couple draft nerd guests
- Unfortunately, that is extremely unlikely to happen. Our post-draft pod takes a ton of work (keeping the picks+trades together, working on the cap sheet, etc) and doing a live show makes all of those priorities more difficult to accomplish. We cannot do everything so focusing on what is most important becomes extremely necessary. Sorry!
Any big plans in the nba offseason? Edit for nba or life
- Doing a lot of travel once things calm down work-wise, including about a month out of the country. Preliminary plans for Canada, Portugal and Nepal
Hey Danny. I’m really confused with the NBA Draft television product right now. Picks come in well before they are announced and trades are all over the place in terms of reporting live or on Twitter. What is the gain for picks being leaked so early and do you think the NBA need to fix the NBA Draft show product in some way or do you believe it’s fine how it is?
- The Draft is an extremely hard thing to televise because of the sheer volume of moving pieces, even before considering trades. There is no realistic way for the NBA to clamp down on news breaking on Twitter so I would bring up that the player is likely on the move when you know but also keep the focus on the prospects themselves, presumably a combination of their ability on the floor and the personal stories (which I genuinely enjoy and appreciate- it is such a great moment for these young men and their families). That is a really hard balance to strike. One idea would be an "all of the above" feed that includes on-court and off-court stuff and a second that is all basketball since those largely speak to difference audiences.
Hi Danny - you use the phrase "capable defender" a lot when evaluating players, but I don't think I've ever heard you define what that means. What is your bar for calling someone a "capable defender" vs. not?
- The threshold is that a player can physically and mentally execute the schemes their team runs while also not being easy to attack. Stephen Curry is a good example here: while teams go after him due to his offensive impact and surrounding defensive talent, Curry holds his own enough to make things work. I'd have him above the "capable" bar but hopefully that gives you a good idea.
Hey Danny, if you were in Boston's position, would you be looking at trading grant williams in search of an upgrade somewhere else in your top eight? he seems like a valuable type of player who performed well early in the playoffs, but fell off in the last two rounds. Still I have to think he would be coveted by some teams and the celtics have only so many chips to cash in for an upgrade, potentially on the wing
- I would not trade Grant Williams unless it is for a damn good player. He really showed me a lot this season and struggles against Stephen Curry are not sufficient to justify moving a talented young player with a rare skillset.
Or just deleting the Twitter app for a couple of hours during the draft may be the next course of action
- There are downsides there too: I did one draft where I didn't have Twitter going and was super excited for over an hour that the Pelicans were pairing Anthony Davis and Nerlens Noel