Transcript: Danny's latest Discord chat (5/25)

Also, how’s the recovery from the clavicle fracture going? If it’s okay can you provide more details? As an emergency doctor I’m interested. What part of the clavicle did you break? Was there tenting of the skin? How did they fix it (plate I assume)? Sorry if this is inappropriate but I’m genuinely interested.

  • Totally fine. I fell on my bike because I was being an idiot and got distracted, then tried to brake too hard and hit the front harder than the back. It is the end of my collarbone and I got a hook plate put in because of fragments. Recovery is going pretty well but I am impatient as usual.

Why did AD at center not succeed as expected?

  • Small sample size is my theory, at least for now

If the NBA doesn't pick up the play-in tournament next year - barring injury - do you see anyone falling out of the top 8 in the West?

  • My read is those will still be the 8 best in full-strength talent, so health will be the biggest differentiator.

Every team in the NBA gets to clone one of their players. Who is the best team?

  • I have zero idea how you stop the Nets with a second Durant

I feel like I'm insane. People keep talking about the play-in as if it makes the regular season better. From my eyes it only devalues an already devalued regular season. With two-thirds of the league being in the post-season I watched less regular season ball than I have in 20+ years. Am I crazy or is it the children who are wrong?

  • Depends on where in the standings you focus. Far more motivation to be a top-six seed (see how no one tanked to 7 or 8) and more plausible to get to 10th than 8th. More motivating for some, less for others

Of the teams you consider contenders, which coach do you trust the most in a 7 game series?

  • Very interesting question. It feels weird to say but Vogel I guess, with Lue and Doc nearby.

We’re seeing more stars sign extensions in the last year or two instead of hitting unrestricted free agency. Is that more function of new rules (e.g. the DVPE) or the cap flattening?

  • It is a function of them being where they want to be, at least in most cases (LBJ, AD, PG). When guys want to be elsewhere, extensions will drop in frequency.

And if it is Steve Nash, are we moving towards a model where NBA coaching groups that perform best are likely going to be a collection of talent (e.g. Nash + D'Antoni + Udoka + Vaughn) where, because there is no salary cap on coaches, a team can essentially employ multiple head coaches with various tactical strengths and one CEO type personality manager?

  • Could be. One challenge is that the sport has never really used that structure so it may be hard to find HC's that are comfortable giving up control and talented assistants willing to stick around rather than using it as a short-term stepping stone. I do like the concept, though.

Danny, what do you make of the messy jazz situation the other night? just a case of the org being too careful or too cute? or is there something more going on here?

  • Super weird unforced error/communication breakdown. Don't think it leads to any huge ripples for the organization but so strange to see people so off the same page so publicly.

Why is Luka not Top 3 on your player rankings? He has been unstoppable in the playoffs, improved on defense, and probably has the offensive game with the most counters/breadth. To me he seems like the player I would want the most to run my offense out of the entire league!

  • Luka has played 256 total playoff minutes and did not have a viable case as the best offensive player in the NBA this season. Be patient and remember "will be" and "is" are not the same thing

Jrue Holiday has struggled offensively in the first 2 games of this series yet his struggles feel so different than the struggles of Eric Bledsoe in playoff games past. When Bledsoe struggled he was borderline unplayable except for his decent defense. Yet when Holiday struggles he's still one of the best players on the court. I know this is more of a statement than a question but I'm just curious for your guys thoughts on this. Is Jrue just that much better than Bledsoe?

  • Yep. He has also helped in transition and as a distributor so I disagree with your description that he has "struggled"

Can you list your favorite sources for NBA stats? And do you have any recommended resources (e.g. books) for understanding stats at a deeper level?

  • RT Hoops for live-updating advanced stats, Synergy and the official NBA site for other stuff and it sounds like people I trust like Estimated Plus-Minus so that's another. I thought Basketball on Paper was a useful read and Seth Partnow's book will be a nice addition too (I've read part of it)

Hey Danny, hope the recovery is going well!

For us fans of non-playoff teams we have turned to hyper-focusing on rookies/young players to get overhyped on. 

So when looking at a rookie that surprises and/or outperforms expectations and projecting their outlook going forward do you prefer that they outperformed by being better at the things you thought they would be good at because you have more confidence in their ability to maintain that skill going forward or would you prefer they outperformed by showing value in an unexpected way because of the "potential" they carry if they are able to put it all together?

Looking at this past rookie class I think of those archetypes as Desmond Bane (even better 3&D than expected) and Jaden McDaniels (unexpected development that his immediate contribution was as 3&D wing)

  • For me, the best is when you can see how that development fits in to their best role, especially down the line. For example, Bane's defense was a welcome surprise and LaMelo having both a better jumper and mostly competent defense makes me much more optimistic than pre-season.

how can the Bulls solve their PG problem this offseason?

  • LaVine and Vuc are the foundation of a good (likely not elite) offense. Guys who are plus defenders that have to be guarded off-ball makes them the best possible team, ideally with one guy who checks both those boxes and can also thrive as a secondary ballhandler.

With offenses "evolving" using analytics by emphasizing 3s and at the rim buckets, is there a potential defensive statistical equivalent (i.e. forcing more turnovers)? Or is the counterpunch to these offensive schemes just, "force them into the midrange by walling off the rim"?

  • My best answer is defensive versatility. Switching can take a lot of that away, zoning can in some circumstances and helping off limited offensive players

We were talking earlier about Issac, if the magic decided to move Issac would do you think the return would be given his health and lack thereof?

  • Very limited, sadly. Teams just cannot trust that Isaac will be available when it matters most, especially before he returns.

WRT said Charade being dropped, who should the Warriors go after in your mind that will help them space the floor and provide more shooting?

  • I do not have a specific player in mind yet but a floor-spacing wing-sized player would be big for the rotation. Also, if Klay's defensive role shifts to be more like a SG/SF as I expect, the Warriors could use a reliable on-ball defender, which can be hard to find if the threshold is closing playoff games.

Which series were you most wrong about after all the game 1s?

  • If we include yesterday's action too: Bucks/Heat. If we are flashing back to Sunday, Lakers/Suns, particularly since CP was so limited

Regarding injuries, people tend to penalize guys such as JJJ and Jonathan Issac for getting injured and labeling it as injury-prone when the injuries were unrelated to prior ones and eventually come to the conclusion that x player will never play a full season. Is there a reason why that is and do GMs think the same way about players especially with medicine and injury prevention improving so much over the last decade?

  • Jonathan Isaac had played less than half of his team's games even before his torn ACL. Sometimes it is unfair but some players have trouble staying on the floor due to playstyle, body or something else.

Any of your priors on the bubble results changing much after the results we have seen in the playoffs thus far?

  • Still too early but that will come