Will the Suns pay the tax next season? If no, what will be the cost? They're at 161+ with re-signed Ayton; seems like they can get off of expiring deals to get under the tax (Crowder at 10.2; Saric at 9.2; Craig at 5.1, even Payne at 6.0 has a non-guaranteed last year; Crowder would fit perfectly into the Nets trade exception if they're willing to spend). Would that cost them 1st round picks (if so, how many)? They're not moving Chris Paul but will they move him the next season in order to keep Cam Johnson? Thank you for your time and consideration.
- My instinct is that Sarver would pay a small amount of tax next year, particularly with their recent success and expectations for 2022-23. That said, I like to use $5 million over as a rough proxy for dipping a toe in the water. If we pencil in Ayton for $30 million (barely under the 25% max), they would be $11.3 million over the tax without filling out the roster. That means a Saric or Crowder dump likely does it maybe with something involving Craig or Payne too just to be sure. Asset cost likely would not be too bad. The funny thing is they would have been just about clear without the Shamet extension...
I don't quite remember where Butler fell in the player rankings this year, I'm guessing honorable mention, but could be wrong. Has his playoff run increased his standing in your eyes? And is he now more of a 16 game player who coasts the regular season? Or do you think he takes some of the habits of this postseason and brings them into the reg season? (mostly wondering about the 3PA here)
- I had Butler in my tier that ran from 12-21 and he would still be there after what we have seen so far because while he has played well, the Heat have primarily faced teams without strong wing defenders (Hawks, Sixers) and even though they've mostly had good rim protection those have not exactly been the toughest test. Butler has also been hit-or-miss defensively which I want to keep an eye on. Good news is that if Miami makes it out of this round, we will see Butler against a defense strong enough to clarify his current place. The 3PA relates too, as a lot of the Butler threes (though far from all of them) are being straight up conceded by opponents. Again, something I want to keep an eye on.
How does that work if ownership changes? Do those changes typical happen immediately or would the Suns FO get in an awkward spot where they can't confirm for sure if new ownership wants to pay the tax
- Should there be an ownership change, I think the front office would know pretty quickly what their spending parameters are. Unfortunately for all of us, I sincerely doubt a change happens fast enough to affect decision-making for the 2022 offseason, if it happens at all. While there have been some more dramatic changes recently with the Clippers and Hawks, it generally takes a LOT to force an owner out.
a couple plays down the stretch of heat sixers game 4 has me thinking about the framing of this "harden has lost a step" discussion. harden hits a stepback on bam, then almost immediately after blows right by him for a layup.
how much of harden's lost "burst" do you think is attributable to him being diminished as a stepback threat? thinking back to peak harden I don't think he ever got by guys with pure speed and athleticism, it was always because that stepback threat was so lethal, and the lineups were either 5 out or 4 out + rim running big setting a screen and harden would get the opposing rim protector on a switch. he was able to blow by that switching big with the threat of the stepback and any player is going to look more "bursty" running at a wide open lane with no rim protector
- He has definitely lost a step- I have watched an absolute ton of James Harden throughout his career and possession by possession his burst is not nearly the same as his best days. That said, there is something to the idea that opposing defenses can play the drive differently when they are less afraid of his three-ball and that may be worth doing some digging on at some point (or ideally for me, someone else does that digging because they are better at it than I am). So I think it is a mix of the two but do not discount his reduced burst- even if Harden's driving was not built on leaving opponents in the dust, it makes it easier for his original defender to recover and help defenders to get into the action, which may actually open up some different passing angles too depending on the circumstance.
hi Danny, thoughts
Good for them! This was a brutal year for over/unders but I have a long track record so people can say whatever they want.
Do you think the Grizzlies will re-sign Tyus Jones?
- I think they would really like to, especially since Ja Morant's game lends itself to injury more than most point guards so having a reliable backup PG matters more to them than the average team- heck, we've seen that clearly this season! The biggest variable is what the Grizzlies can do with their spending power and my instinct is they can get a player who can be a part of their closing five moving forward. As much as it would hurt to lose Jones, getting someone who elevates their ceiling and makes sense alongside Ja, Jaren and Bane is significantly more important, especially as some of the best teams in the West are on the precipice of aging out of peak contention. There will be a new rising crop but the Grizzlies need to set themselves up now.
Do we think GMs are getting better at team building around their top talents?
I’ve been thinking these playoffs seem more even (aka more parity) and less “ultra superstar driven” but that could be due to injuries to those teams; see jokic and nuggets, Giannis and Khris
- That is a fascinating question and unfortunately it is very hard to parse. Broadly speaking, I think teams are better-run overall and that lifts a whole lot of boats (also, a very good thing for the league overall). The Sixers are probably a good example of my main thought which is that the opportunities for high-level additions around the best players will always be super context-dependent. Ben Simmons was the top player in that draft and eventually turned out to be a pretty rough fit with Embiid. It happens and a non-yips Fultz may have bridged that gap but alas. This is also obviously an issue with the superstar team-up squads because scheme fit is typically not a priority in those situations. Your last point is something I talked about with Mo Dakhil late in the regular season: a very decentralized star constellation plus current injuries means that there is not a team with overloaded talent so it is more about how well the most loaded teams execute (and fit) than most of the last decade. That makes it so fascinating to think about how some of the injured teams fit into this framework. Do you think the full-strength Clippers and Nuggets are better than the Suns and Bucks?
What is the best tactical defensive adjustment you’ve seen a coach make during this playoffs? What about offensive adjustment?
- It's funny- my favorite scheme thing wasn't an adjustment but an original strategy (what the Heat did to the Hawks' offense) but in terms of adjustments, maybe it's a prisoner of the moment but the Bucks finally going to switching and it working well to swing Game 5 is a big one. Offensively, Butler getting downhill against the Sixers' zone and Memphis isoing Ja when he had a match-up instead of using a screen (wonder what other team could do that...) come to mind
do you think this has anything to do with hardens hamstring issue last year + shorter offseason, or do you think it's more just a terminal decline in athleticism along with not taking care of his body as he ages and not changing up his routine?
- The hamstring is absolutely a part of it but the bigger element is him just being 32- there is a degradation that happens even for high-level athletes who take care of their bodies during that time so it is no surprise to see it with Harden. Here's hoping he can get a half-step or more back at full strength because that would be awesome
what are the star-level players you want to see on new teams next year that you think can/will realistically get moved this offseason, and what are the fits that you think are the best/most entertaining for said stars?
- I would LOVE to see Rudy Gobert on a team with better defenders because there has been a lot of chatter/blame that to me is undeserved. Kevin Durant on a team whose other best players are actually on the court (in Brooklyn or elsewhere) and of course Damian Lillard and/or Bradley Beal on a high-level team
What's your dream Finals from an entertainment standpoint?
- Before the playoffs began, I would have expected the Warriors' to be my West representative on this because they haven't faced any of these opponents in a Finals but I don't think they have the defenders to make a more entertaining Finals than the Suns. I'll say Suns/Celtics over Suns/Bucks primarily because it has not happened yet and no Giannis-level gamebreaker would actually make it a fascinating series.
Is a hot dog a sandwich? Can water be wet?
- If a meatball sub is a sandwich (and it is), a hot dog is a sandwich. On the water front, I am more interested in whether Particle Man gets wet when he is in water or whether water gets him instead. On a semi-related note: my dad and I had a long argument once about whether a tie game is close or not. I correctly said it is but he has still not conceded it more than a decade later.
With Richaun Holmes legal trouble seemingly resolved, and in light of his down season (but a bit justifiable with the injuries, the aforementioned legal/personal off court issues and Kangzz stuff as always), how would you think about his trade value? What teams might be targeting a guy like him this offseason? Or is there any world that Mike Brown could use him and Sabonis together in a reasonable way?
- Ah, Sabonis. My concern with a Sabonis/Holmes pairing is that the most fun iteration of the Kings offense is a bunch of perimeter players whirling around him (Jokic-esque, I guess) and having a limited-shooting big in that mix makes finishing harder for the guards. Definitely a limited group defensively but I'd at least prefer that as my base alignment unless it is totally untenable. Even so, if the market for Holmes is weak enough I'd keep him around and experiment with some Sabonis/Holmes minutes rather than rush to sell low.
Does the added volatility and more ideal roster construction that has arisen from the new transfer portal rules in college basketball make you any more interested in the product? My hunch is you're probably at your limit in terms of basketball consumption and only make time for a handful of UCLA games, but was curious if the new environment was pulling folks like yourself in.
- The biggest reason I do not watch much college basketball is not quality of play but lack of time (same with the WNBA, frustratingly). It takes a ton of bandwidth in terms of watching games, doing research and everything else to do my job well and that is not even including the other ventures like writing and broadcasting. I love all of it but it is does not leave a ton of discretionary time for college hoops- for example, the only full college game I watched before the NCAA Tournament was Gonzaga/USF and that's because I was there in person.
Danny I think I’ve seen you tweet about European soccer before - do you follow it much or am I misremembering?
- I wouldn't say that I follow it closely but try to keep an eye on things when I can. For example, my plan is to finish this chat in time so I can get a work out in before watching Arsenal/Spurs because that feels like a big one. One weird element of the postseason is that I actually have more discretionary time during the day, so watching games like that and the later rounds of the Champions League is typically doable.
It is! We (spurs) are four points behind scum (arsenal) for fourth place and champions league qualification
- I don't have a dog in the fight, though one of my good friends from law school is a huge Gooner. My team was actually Everton (young Wayne Rooney!) but that faded in time. I'd like to do what one of my friends does and pick a team each season with the style of play/talent I like the best but I typically cannot watch enough early on to pull that off.
what would be the max aav you'd be willing to go for jalen brunson if you're the mavs, assuming you get a small asset in return if he leaves in a s&t
- Off the cuff, the figure that came into my head was $23 million considering the rising cap but I'd need to do a deeper dive into their cap sheet to be 100% on it
If the Klay we are seeing is now the “real Klay”, would the warriors be better moving him and keeping Wiggins (an actual all-star starter!!) or would that be too anti-vibes?
- I'm pretty sure the Warriors would stomach the margin between this Klay and Wiggins to keep him around, especially since his shitty shot selection is something they should be able to iron out in time. Also, the Warriors may want something a little different from that forward slot next to Draymond (maybe a little more of a lob threat) and GSW actually does not have that much high-end shooting so losing Klay presents some big problems to their offense.