Have the Spurs now moved out of the half-space in this rebuild enough to give them a chance at landing the talent needed to return to play-off basketball in the medium term? Or do they need to go harder (not OKC hard but, harder)?
- If the goal is to add someone who can be the best player on the next great Spurs team, my instinct is they are still too good unless SA gets some real lottery luck (wouldn't be the first time). Murray and Poeltl are a capable foundation and the other funny part is even a younger Spurs team still never turns it over so they will beat themselves less than the truly bad squads out there. To me, the even more interesting question is whether they are comfortable taking a bigger bite at the apple next season because Pop potentially retiring may open the door but again their holdover talent is just better than the bottom of the league.
Thoughts on new Mavs rotation after the trade deadline.
- I have not watched a ton of the Mavs post-deadline yet (my goal is to watch every team for two halves every two weeks and I focused on some larger overhauls right after the deadline) but I'm pleases that Kidd kept Brunson as the starter vs. Miami and remain intrigued by leaning more heavily into their wing guys since you want Luka to have manageable defensive assignments anyway.
Any recs from when you lived in DC?
- Sure! These are probably more than a little outdated since I lived there in 2015 and 2013 but one key is to really appreciate the variety of museums there- for example, I spent a fair amount of free time at the National Portrait Gallery because it is a really cool building that has some comfortable spaces and nice artwork. Also, it was right near the Wizards arena so I would chill there between work and games. Favorite food includes Oohs and Aahs (their grits!) and the Library of Congress commissary (was my go-to when I interned on The Hill) and Baked & Wired. Drinks: Quill if you want to be fancy, Vue Rooftop for the view and Ted's Bulletin for the boozy shakes
In your mind what would be the ideal number of games in a regular season schedule?
- Play everyone twice but keep the season the same length of time (so no back-to-backs). That would be 58 games right now but I would be adding two franchises so 62 per team in Danny's NBA Utopia.
At this point, is the best path for the Lakers moving forward to try to get some sort of package for AD?
- It is hard to imagine the Lakers getting a package back for Davis that makes them more likely to win a title in the next two years and they have one of the best players on the planet so that is where you focus. On top of that, this feels like it would be selling low on AD considering how rough this season has been more in terms of his level of play when healthy than availability (though it's both, of course)
do you have a preferred straw to stir your drink?
- The funniest part is that I almost never use straws. That said, probably a curly straw because why not?
Hey Danny, I feel like there's still a notion that cap space carries different levels of value based on the market a team is in, but when I think of market being an advantage I think of that when it comes to players being offered the same contract by a multitude of teams so either max contracts or exceptions/minimums (things that aren't as dependent on cap space). Given how with the increased usage of extensions we are pretty rarely/never seeing max players hit FA - aren't we getting to a point where cap space has equal utility for all teams. It feels like the vast majority of the time sub-max players who are getting their first big payday just tend to go for the highest offer rather than the best markets
- That is an interesting thought. My instinct is that it still has more utility for the big markets because it remains a potential mechanism to add high-level talent for them even if the current trend is more towards extensions. The development I am focused on now is smaller market teams using cap space in imbalanced trades- for example, the Grizzlies' $16-18 million in space being a partial vehicle for adding a great player already under contract rather than a FA or salary dump for an asset that ideally then becomes a good player down the line. That requires a trade partner interested in playing ball but that may be of interest to someone in 2022 or 2023.
San Antonio has a ton of flexibility in the coming offseason (multiple first-round picks, ~$20M or more in cap sapce and some ~$10M contracts which is favourable for trades) and a (sub-)All-Star in Dejounte Murray who is turning 26 in September. Should they continue a slow rebuild and collect more draft asset, or accelerate it by looking for upgrades via free agency/trades?
- As is so often the case, it really depends most on who is available. That is not the best news for the Spurs this offseason since this FA class is so weak and the top RFA's likely get matched (maybe someone like Sexton or Claxton shakes loose). That said, my general signpost is whether a team has someone I expect to be the best player at whatever level of success they are targeting and unfortunately my read is that neither Murray nor Poeltl is that guy unless ownership's goals are making the playoffs rather than advancing. I prefer teams that can make more noise in the postseason so if I ran the show they would be gauging value of their best guys but only making a move if properly valued because rushing it is not really necessary, at least for now.
Hi Danny, you and Nate recently talked about Anfernee Simons and the Blazers in relation to the CJ deal, but with the sudden emergence of Simons do you think the blazers should move Dame this off-season? If so wouldn’t a package for Ben Simmons (similar to what the Nets got) have been perfect for Blazers to transition into a quick rebuild?
- Simons has been very impressive but I don't think that Ben Simmons is the right player to pair him with because of his specific flaws. The most intriguing part of Simons' game is his creation (1.073 PPP in pick and roll including passes!) and Simmons is an offensive negative in the halfcourt when not involved in the primary action. I would be focused more on getting a defensive foundation with a maximum of one non-shooter and probably leaning towards a non-switching system because of Simons, though going to it sometimes hopefully becomes palatable.
Nate or Sam Vecenie or other podcasters would like to say that "they have talked to sb and learned that [some rumor or sources' opinion]. It seems that you seldom talk like that. just wonder if you prefer not to talk about these stuff (to be clear, it is not meant to be a criticism)
- I spend a lot less time than those two gentlemen talking to people inside the league and there is a specific reason for it: I think it makes my analysis worse both in a public or non-public sense. For example, I felt worse criticizing the Bucks when one of my personal friends worked in the FO (pretty sure you all can figure out who) and he was not even the lead decision-maker or anything! As such, I generally avoid those conversations and get more than enough of the inside scoop from my peers who engage on that front.
hey danny, there's some reporting that the jazz view NAW as a potential rotation piece. what does his fit look like in the jazz backcourt? can he guard up? what skills does he bring to the table and how might they add to the jazz bench?
- Back when he was like 17, I saw NAW at Adidas Nations and what excited me was a version of the Danny Green skillset: adept team defender who could be a lower usage part of the offense. Hilariously, every single thing NAW has done since then runs directly against that theory of what he could be. Still, he has the physical tools to defend twos and some threes and his C&S game is not horrendous with reason to believe it could improve in time. My dream for him as a starter is definitely faint but 6'5 guys who can do the basics are actually pretty needed in NBA rotations so I like the Jazz rolling the dice that they can break NAW of his worst habits.
Throwing a softball here. How much if the MVP vote should Jokic win? 75% 80%?
- I have only begun to do my awards prep (Nate and I will tackle it after the Break) but there are four viable MVP candidates who are all having fantastic seasons. With a little under two months to play, I am extremely excited to see who does the best from here on out. That said, Jokic was a goddamned monster last night and it was a joy to see in person.
By my re-collection, you and nate used to be criticise the bucks FO a lot when your fd is there lol
- They did a lot of things worth criticizing then
Buyout market is usually way overrated, but thoughts on Tristan Thompson to the Bulls? Plausible Giannis defender for 10 minutes to 15 minutes a game in their non-offensive units that they didn't have before? From what I can see via NBA.com matchup data, he's held his own against him the last three seasons.
- I don't think TT has much of anything left for a playoff team, though I would love to be wrong.
Danny - in the mock draft we saw Ben Simmons be traded for CJ. Based on the deal we just saw, what do you think was the main difference in your evaluation of the situation compared to what we actually saw go down?
- Harden being available is the biggest thing because it is rare to see a player that good on a team that viable (when their stars are healthy) both want a trade and have a FO actually willing to do it. I was not negotiating that deal but the theory was it would be a shame to waste a brilliant Embiid season with an empty star slot so get the best player available who makes sense alongside him. That is what Morey did too, just with Harden on the board.
Do you think the Pistons 112-111 win over the red hot Celtics is a positive indicator a Cade, Grant, and Saddiq Bey is legitimate or just one of the random losses good NBA teams have?
- I watched roughly half of that game and thought it was the best Detroit has played in anything I've seen this season. Moving and communicating better on defense but also the ball was pinging a little better too. Granted, it all looks better when you shoot 16/30 from the field but they looked more like the team I expected when I took their over. sighs loudly
Danny we all come here for you and Nate's cold, logical approach to hoop analysis, but is this tweet a sign that you, possibly as a result of the season DeMar is having, are becoming a hooper truther?
- I did not know /s was required on Twitter
Danny, you said in a recent Twitter Spaces that the play in tournament has incentivized some teams to engage in destructive behavior. Isn't that much more true of the draft system? The play in team encourages teams to try to win and seeing the best players in the world compete (while allowing for development of young players) is ultimately what the league is about. The draft system encourages teams to try to lose, including by resting healthy players (even young ones) and signing and playing marginal players who can help tank. This behavior goes against the spirit of the rules which is supposed to reward talent to the teams that need it most, not to the teams who are most willing to brazenly avoid wins. Recognizing that no system is perfect, if you're going to criticize anything for rewarding destructive behavior, shouldn't it be the draft system?
- A healthy NBA has teams at different phases in the franchise life cycle and you do not see many franchises Processing right now trying to maximize draft position without doing so in the service of developing young players. One big reason the Kings have been so bad for so long is that they short-circuit the process by never getting so bad that they build up a strong foundation to THEN compete with. In my eyes, it was easier for teams to see they were not good enough for 8th out of 15 than 10th out of 15.
You and Nate both seemed lukewarm about the Sixers end of the Harden trade.
Isn't this the best they possibly could've done with the Ben Simmons situation? To me its an unequivocal slam dunk going from not a contender to contender status
- I talked about it a little more on the second deadline pod but the core idea is that I am uncomfortable hitching my wagon to James Harden in his thirties, especially on a long-term contract. He was absolutely the best player available but even though his BKN time was broadly in line with what I hoped/expected, Harden does not take great care of his body and has already nuked two situations when he decided he wanted to be elsewhere. The answer is probably that it is a necessary evil since most comparably elite players are just not available for another little while but I worry that two to three years from now we will be seeing a still-great Embiid with weaker than average talent around him without a title or maybe even a Finals appearance between now and then. It's a tough tightrope.
Borrowing idea from The Athletic....what would be your targets/strategy if a draft like this were to occur? You can pick any city/market, stadium, governor, GM (either currently employed or any person), coach, or player [Link: MLB Mega-Mock Draft: We built a league from scratch and might have broken baseball]
- Fascinating concept! I would go with elite talent first (probably Giannis or Luka off the cuff) because that is what wins in basketball but a tippy-top market would be pretty high on the list, as would the best governors.
you must get burnt out on consuming basketball year-round. how do you handle that fatigue? what are some other things you like to do outside of basketball analysis?
- Realized I forgot to answer this one! I have always said that it is important to love this grind (because it is one) but I have a few other tricks. Watching the whole league actually helps because it brings out different styles and players, so it feels less like drudgery. I also follow a version of "listen to your body" and just take it easy for a day if feeling overwhelmed. Last key is immediately relevant: when possible, try to fully disconnect for small stretches. That is a big part of why Nate and I take the All-Star Break fully off now- keeps us fresh for the workload to come until ~July 5.
- OK, that is all for now- I need to put up this week's RealGM Radio with Sam Vecenie. Thanks for all the excellent questions and I'll be back soon enough. Take care and make it a great day.