December 20, 2024 at 2:44 am

Thursday Daily Duncs (12/19/24)

Darvin Ham

Darvin Ham on the Lakers firing him, via Marc J. Spears of Andscape:

“To do as well as I did, I swear to God, anywhere else I’m probably looking at an extension with what I did,” Ham said. “I’m not talking about feelings. I’m talking actual facts. They go from not making it to the playoffs to the final four in the NBA, the conference finals. And then you win the in-season tournament, navigate through all the injuries and win both of your play-in games to get to the playoffs.

Twelve coaches have taken over a team that missed the playoffs the prior season and guided it to the playoffs his first year. Just two of those twelve got fired a year later:

  • Darvin Ham
  • David Blatt

Frank Vogel lasted only one season longer than that.

The commonality? All three coaches LeBron, of course.

Coaching LeBron is different, for better and worse. He brings massive opportunity, unique pressures, noisy distractions and sky-high expectations.

Blatt made the NBA Finals. Vogel won a championship! By comparison, Ham fell short.

As he said, Ham still built a resumé that would appeal to most teams. He'll probably get another head-coaching job with it.

But when coaching LeBron, it's not abnormal to get fired quickly, even after winning a lot.

LeBron James

LeBron James on the new All-Star format, via Dave McMenamin of ESPN:

"It's not just the All-Star Game. It's our game in general," James said. "There's a lot of f---ing 3s being shot. So it's a bigger conversation than just the All-Star Game."
"Something had to change," James said, alluding to last year's game that featured 397 combined, meaningless points by the two teams.
"We'll see, we'll see when we get there," he continued. "It's different. Obviously anytime you make some type of change it's going to be some buck back. I don't know. I mean, I have my ideas of what could possibly work. ... You got to do something. Obviously, the last couple of years have not been a great All-Star Game that Sunday night."

Not ideal for the NBA when its most influential player is asked about one problem with the league then, unprompted, brings up another.

At least LeBron isn't condemning the new four-team All-Star tournament. That's better than several other players.

Style of play

While saying the NBA should take seriously fans' concerns about teams taking too many 3-pointers, framing it as less about 3s and more about overall style of play, Adam Silver said he didn't think moving back the 3-point arc was a solution, via Tim Bontemps of ESPN:

"When we look at both the game and the data, I think that may not necessarily do more midrange jumpers, if that's what people want, but more clogging under the basket."

The NBA could theoretically move back the 3-point line and expand the paint, enlarging the court to keep similar proportions. As players have gotten bigger and more athletic, the longstanding dimensions seem antiquated.

However, the practicality of expanding the court in all 30 arenas is a major issue. There isn't necessarily enough space everywhere. Plus, forcing players to cover even more ground could lead to more injuries.

But if re-sizing the court could be done feasibly and safely – huge ifs, I know – that's where I'd start.

NBA Cup

On the pod, Nate joked his NBA Cup all-tournament team would be just three players: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Damian Lillard. Nobody else distinguished themselves.

The NBA named the actual team, and the 20 voting media members of course picked those three – Antetokounmpo and Gilgeous-Alexander unanimously – with Trae Young and Alperen Sengun snagging the last two spots.

NBA Cup all-tournament team:

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks (20 votes)
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder (20)
  • Damian Lillard, Bucks (19)
  • Trae Young, Hawks (12)
  • Alperen Sengun, Rockets (6)

Also receiving votes:

  • Isaiah Hartenstein, Thunder (5)
  • Franz Wagner, Magic (5)
  • Jalen Johnson, Hawks (4)
  • Jalen Williams, Thunder (3)
  • Stephen Curry, Warriors (1)
  • Luka Doncic, Mavericks (1)
  • De'Aaron Fox, Kings (1)
  • Nikola Jokic, Nuggets (1)
  • Brook Lopez, Bucks (1)
  • Karl-Anthony Towns, (1)

The lone voter to omit Lillard? Richard Jefferson, who picked the four other players who actually made it plus Stephen Curry.

NBA Cup

The league is talking about moving the NBA Cup later in the regular season, according to Tim Bontemps of ESPN. Per Bontemps, that would allow expanding the group stage from four to eight games – though that change sounds unlikely.

With or without a longer group stage, moving the NBA Cup later would mean less overlap with football. Starting the tournament after New Year's could also give Christmas games a bigger spotlight before getting at least somewhat overshadowed. Maybe it's just me, but the Christmas slate doesn't seem as momentous after the NBA Cup.

However, the early start to the Cup means it comes when more teams feel they can compete. As the season drags, more teams pivot into tanking. I'd hate to lose every team going all out. If even a few teams aren't invested in the Cup, that could really skew results and make those games less compelling.

The NBA Cup also happens basically uninterrupted in November and December. A later start could mean halting the Cup for All-Star, especially if expanding the group stage. Doing it after All-Star would make those tanking concerns even more pronounced.

Mark Daigneault

Thunder coach Mark Daigneault on his team playing the NBA Cup semifinal and final in Las Vegas then resuming its season, via Joe Vardon of The Athletic.

“We’re basically on a six-day West Coast road trip right now, and our next game coming out of this is three time zones away, four-hour flight to Orlando and then a back-to-back against Miami — which if you look that as a road trip, is an unprecedented road trip,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said. “The NBA would never schedule that. They would never put a team a on six-day West Coast road trip, and then fly them east for a back-to-back.”

Another spin: The Thunder had two games in eight days in the same place then have a back-to-back.

I have some sympathy for teams that reach the NBA Cup final and must play an extra game. Though advancing that far – and especially winning – is an accomplishment, the extra wear-and-tear is an unideal tradeoff.

But Daigneault's griping is a bit much.

Jimmy Butler-Heat

Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, citing Bradley Beal's onerous contract and Phoenix's one tradeable first-round pick, called Jimmy Butler-Suns discussion a waste of time and called Golden State Butler's most likely destination if traded.

It's unclear the degree to which Jackson is reporting vs. speculating, but he's quite plugged in in Miami.

Butler to Phoenix starts with one question: What if he demands a trade specifically to the Suns?

He has some leverage with his player option for next season. Teams prefer not to have a rental, and they want to keep him at a number that makes them comfortable. Butler also knows how to apply pressure to his own team to get a trade.

Even if Butler says he wants to go to Phoenix and only Phoenix, it won't necessarily happen. Bradley Beal has a no-trade clause. The Heat might getter better offers from elsewhere and not acquiesce to Butler's destination demand. Miami might even rather keep an unhappy Butler rather than take Beal's contract.

But if Butler demands a trade to the Suns specifically, that is the path to this trade angle not being a waste of time.

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have finished just 13% of their plays with a pick-and-roll or handoff, per Synergy.

That's way below anyone else. The next-lowest team is the Nuggets at 23%.

The difference between the Grizzlies and the No. 29 team in pick-and-roll/handoff frequency (Denver) is greater than the difference between the No. 29 team and the No. 2 team!

Percentage of plays finished with a pick-and-roll or handoff:

So, if not setting ball screens or running handoff plays, what is Memphis doing? Ben Taylor of Thinking Basketball has a fantastic video breakdown on the Grizzlies' space-and-reposition offense.

Hall of Fame

Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard and Amar'e Stoudemire are the strongest first-time NBA candidates nominated for the Basketball Hall of Fame, and Shawn Marion is the top repeat nominee.

Remember, this is the Basketball, not NBA, Hall of Fame. So, someone like Marc Gasol has way higher odds than listed below based on his international accomplishments. Someone like Fabricio Oberto, who spent his NBA career as a part-time starter, gets mentioned for the Hall of Fame due to the Hall's relatively low standards for foreign players.

This is also the Basketball Hall of Fame – a secretive organization with an opaque process. Surely, some of these former players – clearly below any reasonable Hall of Fame standard – are mentioned only because a nominator wanted to shout out a pal.

All that said, former NBA players nominated as players, by Basketball-Reference's Hall of Fame probability:

  • Dwight Howard 99.7%*
  • Carmelo Anthony 98.4%*
  • Shawn Marion 75.6%
  • Amar'e Stoudemire 72.9%*
  • Anfernee Hardaway 28.7%
  • Bill Laimbeer 26.1%
  • Marques Johnson 25.2%
  • Paul Silas 12.7%
  • Willie Naulls 11.6%
  • Gus Williams 11.3%*
  • Buck Williams 8.0%
  • Tom Chambers 5.2%
  • Maurice Lucas 4.6%
  • Marc Gasol 4.2%*
  • Robert Horry 3.4%*
  • Dick Van Arsdale 2.6%
  • Reggie Theus 0.7%
  • Max Zaslofsky 0.7%
  • Terry Cummings 0.6%
  • Freddie Brown 0.6%
  • World B. Free 0.5%*
  • Andrei Kirilenko 0.4%
  • Jack Coleman 0.4%
  • Tom Van Arsdale 0.3%
  • Kevin Porter 0.1%
  • Mike Gminski 0.0%
  • Jorge Garbajosa 0.0%
  • Andrew Gaze 0.0%
  • Juan Carlos Navarro 0.0%
  • Andres Nocioni 0.0%
  • Fabricio Oberto 0.0%
  • Jose Ortiz 0.0%
  • Mack Calvin 0.0%
  • Travis Grant 0.0%
  • Greg Kelser 0.0%
  • Bill Melchionni 0.0%
  • Don Otten 0.0%
  • Mel Riebe 0.0%
  • Lennie Rosenbluth 0.0%
  • Kenny Sailors 0.0%
  • John Williamson 0.0%
  • Ralph Simpson 0.0%*

Valuations

Led by the Warriors ($9.14 billion), Knicks ($8.30 billion) and Lakers ($8.07 billion) – all the way down to the Grizzlies ($3.06 billion) – every NBA team is worth more than $3 billion, according to Sportico's latest valuations.

All 30 teams' valuations increased at least 8% from last year, none by more than the Nets' (43%). Brooklyn jumped nine spots to No. 4 in the rankings, the only team to move more than four slots.

The Celtics, up for sale, are valued at $5.66 billion.

-Dan Feldman