If the Utah Jazz win the title, would it cause you to revisit any of these items?
- Player ratings for Mitchell/Gobert
- Importance of depth in the playoffs
- Ceiling on a conventional defense
- Optimal roster-building in small markets
- Yeah I think it probably would, depending on who they beat of course. Mitchell has certainly been unbelievable so far, particularly in this Clippers series. Hopefully that doesn't change with this latest ankle tweak. But if they beat the Clippers without anything from Conley (and his participation is increasingly in question) that would be very impressive. Now, I will note that part of both of their dominance over the first 2 games was the Clippers employing bad strategy with bad execution and bad personnel. My idea for having those guys lower was their ability to attack switching defense and also to deal with spread out offense and big wings. Now that the Clippers are maximizing that part of the strategy we'll see if their fortunes change. Gobert's impact in particular was muted because of that in Game 3. But even just beating the Clippers with the Clippers employing their optimal strategy would be a big feather in their caps to me. As for the optimal roster building in small markets...I think you just build around the great players you have wherever you are. So I don't think it would change my opinion there. I'm not advocating that the Jazz dump Rudy and Mitchell or the Nuggets dump Jokic even if I don't think they're player types optimized to win a championship. What's the alternative?
Do you think this season will be the peak of this version of the Suns (Booker-Ayton)?
- this is an interesting question. I was actually talking to a buddy about this offline and kinda thinking the Suns haven't really played anyone yet, but he noted they're probably as good as at least your median West Finals loser over the past decade which is a good point. That said, their matchups so far have been great for Ayton, and we'll see how he looks when he has to guard more in space. But if they're going to really pay Booker, Ayton (who everyone says is getting a max now which I think would be a mistake) and Bridges (who I think is actually more valuable than Ayton) then that's kind of their team unless Sarver is willing to go deep into the tax. CP has to fall off at some point you'd think, and then they're down that 2nd great initiator. So maybe next year they're better if Paul stays but then I think his decline would more than offset improvements from the other guys.
what do you make of the tim cato piece today? which defcon level is the mavs org at?
- I'm sure Danny and I will talk about that more later. I find some of it believable, but it's also possible to blow things out of proportion. Mark Cuban doesn't seem to have the greatest record of managing people below him, and the lack of a clear organizational hierarchy isn't great either. Let's see if Bob sticks around there, I think that will determine a lot. Ultimately, to me it comes down to winning. The whole "Luka doesn't like him thing" is what's really got people at Defcon, otherwise it'd just be dismissed as sour grapes from others in the organization. But if they win, I'm guessing Luka will like him just fine. The problem is they don't have the easiest path forward. Plus if you're trying to get other stars to join Luka there, you don't want an indication that HE might leave.
Could a Porzingis for Siakam swap make some sense? with some additional comp (maybe Josh Green+a role player) going to Toronto given that Dallas is limited in terms of picks. Seems like it could help Dallas a lot defensively and Toronto offensively.
- yeah Toronto is such a black box to me right now where I have no idea what their plan is going to be. Porzingis to me doesn't really fit there as he's kind of a win-now guy, so Dallas would have to throw in some assets to make that happen.
Hey Nate, what do you think about the fact there are probably multiple burner accounts in this discord from people around the NBA, side note are you a coffee person or tea person? or neither hope you’re having a great day
- I have no idea whether that's true or not on NBA people being in the Discord. My guess would be they have their actual jobs to do. But I do obviously appreciate hearing from all the NBA people and agents who follow my work; it improves things when they criticize but also shows that I'm on the right track if my stuff is useful to them. On the beverage thing, my mom got me an espresso maker for Hanukah so I've been making a lot of cappucinos lately, although shifting to espresso of late since I'm trying to lose a few lbs so I can make one last stab at playing basketball without getting injured. I also enjoy a good tea, although I'm not really an expert on either. I get some stuff from a place called Song Tea in SF, but the Costo Ito-En/Kirkland green tea is a stapel.
Last year Gersson Rosas said “I’d be naive to say we are making the playoffs this year.” Given that the roster has 2 max players, one of which he traded a potential lottery pick for is there a more ridiculous attempt to lower expectations from a GM this past year?
- I didn't see that statement, it seems at odds with some of the moves the organization has made. Maybe getting the #1 pick and playing him a ton of mins changed that. Plus they had a ton of injuries. When did he say that exactly? In terms of lowering expectations.....well I had those expectations for them as well so.....
Was Damian Jones the best center the Lakers had all year?
- I'd go with Anthony Davis haha
Nate is there a partial solution to the challenge of 2-3 guys teaming up you believe in? I know it’s nearly impossible to change the max contract rule. Perhaps the team that drafts a player can offer much more money, still up to a limit, but off the salary cap?
- I don't personally think it's a problem because I want to see basketball played at the highest possible level in the later stages of the playoffs. So I don't mind so-called superteams. Maybe the Warriors went a little far with it, as I would have enjoyed them much more without KD. That said, my proposal to just make the 35% max available to anyone as soon as they're off their rookie contracts would probably help with this a little.
This is full Rosas quote from August 2020:
“I’d be naive to say we’re playoff contending next year because that’s not how it happens, especially in the West,” Rosas said. “You have to build a winning program. You have to build an identity. You have to build your DNA, and that takes time. My goal is that we become a winning team next season and become a playoff team in the following couple of seasons.”
- so that's before they knew they'd have Edwards it seems like. No reason not to lower expectations like that considering how bad they were the year before. I think that's smarter than the Olshey approach.
You've spoken a lot about there not being a lot of player movement this offseason because stars are where they want to be... Plus, this seems like an extremely weak free agent class. Do you expect this to be the least "busy" offseason you've covered on Dunc'd on? Would a lack of narratives in the offseason be detrimental to the NBA considering the want to make it a year-round event?
- yeah, I'm not loving all these extensions because I find offseason movement one of the most fascinating pieces. However, I think having relatively consistent teams from this year to next year will at least lead to some redemption type storylines. One of the reasons I'm into keeping conferences the way they are is I always enjoyed the rivalries that could build up over multiple seasons.
So I know your wife is into yoga, does she practice Iyengar by any chance?
- No she's not into iyengar, although I do have another friend who teaches that. Her biggest influences are two teachers named Annie Carpenter and Carmen Aguilar, who have come up with styles called Smartflow and C-Yoga.
does FVV + OG for wiseman, wiggins, draft compensation (ie warriors own pick) vault warriors to contenders? seems like steph, FVV, klay, OG, dray is a great two-way unit, and a FVV, poole, klay second unit means they might even be able to survive non steph mins
- Much of course depends on what version of Klay comes back. FVV and Steph is a little small in the backcourt although obviously FVV is tough defensively. I kinda like this one though obviously the nature of the draft compensation matters quite a bit.
With injuries to point at for the Nuggets - do you see them just running it back next season without any significant moves?
- They could probably use another creator. Maybe that could just be Barton if healthy, his player option decision is fascinating as we talked about last week. I would certainly want to find a little more perimeter firepower, but they don't have a ton of resources available to do that. Maybe they can hope that improvement from MPJ can do enough during the regular year until Murray comes back......if he does next year. But I'd probably want to save some of my powder for future years with the understanding that a recovering Murray probably doesn't make you a championship contender. If they really look that good and Murray returns early and looks good perhaps they look to add pieces at the deadline.
Which teams would you most like to see jump up in the lottery?
- Interested to know what the chat thinks on this. I go back on forth between wanting an unwatchable team like Cleveland to get someone decent that makes them enjoyable, a la Charlotte this year, or just wanting the rich to get a little richer. Obviously I think it would be good for the league to see the Warriors back in contention so you might root for them to jump up with that Minnesota pick into 4, but on the other hand they already had the luck last year and appear to have squandered it with the Wiseman pick so perhaps they don't deserve it. San Antonio is another team I'd like to see get a guy with star potential particularly given how well they develop players and the fact they have a bunch of nice role players in place already.
Is J.Ingles the best Aussie player in the NBA?
- No I'd still have to say Simmons despite his limitations. Joe of course is quite underrated, but I liked him a little more a couple of years ago when he could also defend.
Has Embiid's defense in the last two games of the hawks series changed your opinion of his coverage versatility?
- I wouldn't say so. I think he's largely been hanging back. As we talked about on Friday's show, I haven't really cared for the Hawks' approach attacking him in PnR because they're setting the screens too low so they aren't really making him get too far out there. He's of course been fantastic, but we haven't really seen him challenged much with 5 out lineups or great 3 point shooting in PnR off the dribble. It also helps a ton of have Simmons out there on Trae, although as I'm sure everyone here knows I think Embiid is the more valuable defender than Simmons. Obviously a real Nets series would have been fascinating to see him on defense.
How many MVPs have been swept in the playoffs?
- I think Jokic is the 4th, after Magic 89 (who was injured 2 games in), Kareem in 77 (although the narrative that Walton dominated him in that series is quite overrated), and I think Moses was another one in 79 although that was a 3-game series. Moses' 79 MVP was kind of a weird one btw. I don't put much stock in the idea that getting swept somehow diminishes his MVP by the way.
Warriors beat writers and an editor are talking about an Oubre S&T as if it’s going to be a viable option. If Oubre wants starting SF money and that role is anyone out there offering it to him? Also, is there any team more interested in the S&T option than a simple FA signing?
- Danny and I talked about this a bit on last night's pod, and I don't necessarily see the team. Perhaps a team without much capspace would be interested but then would they also want to give up assets in the sign and trade? I do think if he signs elsewhere into a team's capspace the Warriors will bribe them with a 2nd to make it a S&T like with the Celtics/Hayward situation last offseason.
Are you surprised by Embiid's ability to play on this torn meniscus? Is it just the best and smallest tear possible or something? Has his play given you any more faith in the sixers in round 3?
- I didn't think it was impossible he'd play this well, but it's certainly on the higher end of the expected outcomes. But if the meniscus tear is pretty small it can be managed. We'll know how impressive a feat this was by whether he has surgery after the season.
Do you think the Warriors make an aggressive move in the off-season (go after a Top 20 player in a trade) or do you think they'll wait to see what they have in Klay and team and wait till the mid-season trade deadline?
- I'm sure they'd love to. But as we've talked about for a while, it's hard to see who might be available. If so, they are in the mix for having the best package although it'd be nice if Wiseman had shown enough to not just be kind of a throw-in at this point. The lottery is also key for them of course with the Minnesota pick.
Do you think there's a buyer out there for John Wall this offseason?
- No, I don't think so. He's probably not going to really help a playoff team a ton, plus the injury risk is omnipresent. If he can get to the point where he's a player you'd really want starting in the playoffs then perhaps they could move him for some even worse salary, but such a trade doesn't really present at the moment.
If you were Lawrence Frank, and the Clippers bow out of the second round again this year how does this affect your decisions moving forward if Kawhi decides to leave.
- I'd start looking up how much my house in LA appreciated and how far that money could go in a cheaper area of the country.
what offseason moves do you see the sixers making? which ones would you recommend they make?
- Let's see how the rest of their season goes first. But the Lowry sign and trade is certainly enticing. Upgrading the shooting and playmaking is always wanted. I think they should always be exploring Simmons trades--let's see how he plays against a real playoff defense. But it could get to a point where his reputation outstrips his production at the highest levels and it would make sense to move him before everyone else catches on.
You contended all year that this regular season would be among the least predictive of postseason results in history. Are you ready to rethink that after the first round went largely as one would expect based on the regular season or do you think we still have big surprises in store?
- I think the injuries have continued to make this very difficult to predict. I mean, how many times did the favorite in that Suns/Lakers series shift around due to injuries? Same thing with Nets/Bucks, same thing maybe with Clips/Jazz. It looked like Embiid might be done for the playoffs at one point too. So the hardest thing to predict is injuries, and I think you'd have to say this crazy season has had at least a little to do with that.
If Portland does decide to blow it up, would a package centered around draft picks (similar to James Harden Haul), Jaylen Brown, or Ben Simmons be more attractive?
- Probably draft picks. Although Brown might have enough upside still left to explore as to be worth a flier as a skilled big wing. I don't really understand why you'd want Simmons as a rebuilding team because I don't think you're a playoff team with him as your best guy, and then he's just kinda taking up space and getting you to 32 wins. I think that might have been part of the Rockets' thinking in going with the Nets' package although surely there were other factors at play as well. It is noteworthy though that Brown only has 3 years remaining on his contract.
Does Anthony Davis' refusal to play C make you rethink about him in your player rankings?
- yeah I talked about that some with John. I'd say the injury potential is more likely to do that though. Really want to see how he and LeBron play next regular season as that will of course determine a lot. Worth noting that he did play C about 20 mpg in their run in 2020 which is probably enough. I think a big part of the org issues is spending too much capital on the center next to him.
WATFO Schroeder gets more APV than Dinwiddie? And WATFO Schroeder gets more guaranteed than Dinwiddie?
- My guess would be that DS probably gets more in both, not that he should. Dinwiddie has always been underrated, and coming off the injury isn't the greatest time for him. But when healthy and given the role he's reached levels DS never has, plus has more size and versatility. So I'd want to give Spencer more personally.
Been an NBA fan since the original player rivalry, Russell vs. Wilt ( I was a Wilt guy, I was a kid who didn't appreciate defense like I do now.) You are an NBA history guy, I think the play quality and the aesthetic of the game is as good now as it has ever been. What say you?
- Yeah, 100% I think it's better than it's been. 2 point spotups turning into 3s, more drives to the basket which are the most fun plays, more tempo, teams playing harder (and having to play harder) on defense, lowest foul rate ever, and by far the highest skill level ever. You just see more spectacular plays, passes, and shots than you did before. Just look at, say the number of guys who can throw every pass with both hands these days as an example. On the Wilt vs Russell thing, if you haven't I highly recommend Ben Taylor's top-40 series at Backpicks.com. Really eye-opening stuff on Wilt in particular.